***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 13.0 13.9 17.5 2.2 93.7 88.2 11.7 12.2 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 13.0 13.9 16.9 2.0 92.3 86.1 11.4 12.0 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 15.1 16.0 17.4 1.9 91.9 86.4 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 10.7 12.0 14.7 2.1 94.6 89.3 9.0 9.7 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 11.8 12.6 15.0 1.8 91.5 87.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 10.9 11.7 12.8 1.8 94.4 89.9 9.7 10.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 13.0 13.9 17.0 2.0 92.8 86.4 11.8 12.3 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 6.5 7.2 12.6 1.5 89.2 84.2 5.3 5.8 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 12.9 13.5 15.0 1.7 90.6 85.9 11.7 12.2 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 12.7 13.3 13.4 1.7 91.2 86.5 11.5 11.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 12.3 12.8 14.3 1.4 86.8 82.2 11.1 11.6 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 10.8 11.3 13.4 1.5 88.1 83.3 9.6 10.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 11.6 12.1 12.7 1.2 84.9 80.1 10.5 10.9 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 13.3 13.8 14.5 1.4 87.0 81.7 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 13.6 14.5 16.1 1.8 93.3 87.8 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 13.1 13.6 13.6 1.5 88.4 83.6 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 13.3 14.1 16.5 1.9 92.5 85.8 12.1 12.5 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 11.6 12.3 12.4 1.5 89.5 84.7 10.1 10.6 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 13.0 13.7 16.9 1.9 91.2 85.0 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 7.6 8.1 10.4 1.3 86.7 82.0 6.3 6.8 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 12.5 13.1 16.2 1.7 90.3 84.9 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 12.3 13.1 16.4 1.7 90.9 84.0 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 12.5 13.1 16.7 1.6 88.1 82.2 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 12.8 13.4 14.5 1.6 89.6 84.5 11.6 12.0 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 12.9 13.8 16.3 2.2 94.0 88.8 11.7 12.1 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 11.7 12.1 12.2 1.2 84.2 79.7 10.7 11.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 13.4 14.7 16.9 2.3 94.6 89.3 11.7 12.3 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 11.6 12.5 14.9 1.9 93.7 88.4 10.3 10.8 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 10.5 11.1 11.8 1.4 87.7 83.0 9.1 9.7 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 13.3 14.2 17.3 2.0 92.2 86.2 11.9 12.5 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------