***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 29.3 33.4 32.2 4.8 97.0 96.0 24.8 26.5 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 29.0 32.1 32.0 4.5 95.1 93.5 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 28.9 31.7 32.2 4.5 94.3 92.9 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 22.3 25.2 28.7 4.3 95.3 93.8 18.3 19.7 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 29.7 31.7 29.8 3.7 90.7 89.2 25.7 27.2 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 28.3 29.6 26.9 3.1 88.3 86.7 24.8 26.1 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 28.7 32.1 31.8 4.6 96.2 94.8 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 17.6 18.0 26.7 2.4 79.3 78.2 14.2 15.5 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 29.0 30.9 30.6 3.7 90.5 89.1 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 28.9 30.3 28.3 3.4 87.6 86.2 25.0 26.5 27.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 29.4 30.5 29.9 3.0 84.9 83.6 25.3 26.9 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 28.6 29.1 28.3 2.6 80.4 79.4 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 3 97 100 29.8 30.8 29.5 2.9 84.9 83.6 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 28.8 30.5 29.8 3.5 88.4 86.5 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 29.6 31.2 31.1 3.4 90.5 89.0 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 30.4 31.6 29.5 3.1 86.5 85.1 26.4 27.9 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 28.1 31.4 31.3 4.5 95.7 93.9 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 27.8 28.7 26.9 3.0 83.7 82.3 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 28.7 31.4 31.9 4.3 93.7 92.1 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 23.3 23.2 23.7 1.4 68.8 68.0 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 29.2 31.8 31.6 4.2 93.5 92.1 25.0 26.5 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 28.7 31.6 30.9 4.1 94.2 92.0 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 28.8 30.7 31.7 3.9 90.3 88.8 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 28.5 30.4 30.1 3.9 90.2 88.5 24.4 26.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 29.3 32.3 30.6 4.3 95.3 94.1 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 29.0 29.2 27.4 2.0 75.6 74.4 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 28.8 32.5 31.4 4.7 97.0 96.0 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 29.7 31.7 29.6 3.7 92.3 90.7 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 23.1 23.5 25.7 2.3 77.6 76.4 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 28.8 31.8 32.1 4.5 94.8 93.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------