***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 26.5 27.7 28.8 2.8 81.4 73.4 23.0 24.6 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 26.6 27.3 28.3 2.2 76.1 68.6 23.1 24.7 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 26.5 27.3 28.8 2.5 77.5 70.4 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 19.4 21.0 26.7 3.4 86.3 79.1 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 26.9 27.7 27.0 2.4 77.0 71.0 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 26.1 27.1 25.0 2.9 82.6 77.2 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 26.3 27.2 28.3 2.4 77.8 70.0 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 15.1 15.4 24.9 2.0 72.2 67.5 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 26.6 27.3 27.5 2.4 76.5 70.5 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 26.1 26.8 25.8 2.4 76.1 70.3 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 26.6 27.0 27.0 2.0 72.2 67.6 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 25.9 26.2 26.2 2.0 71.9 67.5 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 26.9 27.3 26.5 2.1 74.5 69.7 24.1 25.4 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 26.3 26.1 26.1 1.5 67.1 62.6 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 27.2 28.4 28.7 3.1 84.5 78.3 24.0 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 27.5 28.2 26.8 2.3 76.4 71.2 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 26.0 26.5 27.7 2.1 75.5 67.8 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 25.2 25.6 24.6 2.0 72.4 66.9 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 26.3 26.8 28.3 2.1 74.2 67.5 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 21.4 21.4 22.2 1.6 68.2 64.2 18.4 19.8 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 26.6 27.4 28.3 2.5 77.7 71.0 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 26.4 26.5 27.4 1.8 71.2 65.1 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 26.3 26.4 28.1 1.8 70.7 65.2 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 26.0 26.4 26.7 2.1 73.0 67.0 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 26.7 27.9 27.5 2.9 82.2 74.2 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 26.5 26.9 25.9 2.1 73.9 69.3 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 26.6 27.9 28.1 2.9 82.8 74.4 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 27.1 28.3 27.5 3.2 84.9 78.6 24.1 25.4 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 20.8 20.8 23.6 1.6 68.4 63.9 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 26.4 27.2 28.5 2.4 77.0 69.7 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------