***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 23.1 23.3 24.6 0.6 57.9 56.2 21.0 22.6 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 23.7 23.4 24.3 0.3 53.2 52.4 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.7 24.8 0.4 55.4 54.7 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 18.1 17.6 22.9 1.1 64.4 61.6 14.8 16.3 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.4 23.2 0.6 57.3 56.7 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 25.0 24.5 21.4 1.2 64.8 62.9 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.1 24.3 0.3 54.2 53.2 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.4 21.7 0.4 55.1 55.3 11.6 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.1 24.2 23.5 0.7 58.0 57.3 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.9 24.0 22.4 0.7 58.0 57.2 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 24.3 24.1 23.1 0.4 55.1 55.3 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.4 22.9 0.4 54.2 54.9 21.4 23.0 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.9 22.3 0.6 57.7 57.5 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.2 22.5 0.0 49.4 50.5 21.5 23.3 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 25.2 24.8 23.7 1.0 63.1 61.0 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.4 22.9 0.8 59.2 58.5 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.5 23.9 0.2 52.4 51.3 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.0 21.6 0.5 56.2 55.8 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.1 24.4 0.2 52.5 51.9 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.5 19.2 19.2 0.3 53.6 53.7 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 23.9 24.0 24.1 0.6 57.1 56.2 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.1 23.8 0.1 51.0 50.1 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 23.7 23.2 24.4 0.1 50.6 50.9 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.7 23.5 22.9 0.4 54.3 54.4 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 23.5 24.0 23.1 0.8 61.0 58.7 21.6 23.0 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.8 22.6 0.6 57.3 57.2 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 23.5 23.8 23.9 0.8 60.3 57.9 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 25.6 25.1 23.3 1.1 64.0 61.8 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.8 18.4 20.6 0.3 53.5 53.8 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.3 24.4 0.3 54.2 53.3 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------