***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 25.9 27.1 28.0 2.5 88.6 81.4 23.6 24.6 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 25.9 26.9 27.7 2.0 84.3 76.5 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 25.9 26.8 28.2 2.2 85.2 78.5 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 19.3 20.8 25.9 2.8 91.7 85.5 16.9 17.9 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 26.5 27.3 26.3 2.1 83.9 78.0 24.5 25.3 26.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 25.8 26.8 24.1 2.3 88.0 82.9 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 25.6 26.6 27.7 2.1 86.0 78.1 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 14.8 15.2 24.3 1.6 76.7 72.0 13.2 13.9 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 26.1 26.9 26.8 2.1 84.0 78.1 24.0 24.9 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 25.8 26.6 25.2 2.1 82.9 77.2 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 26.1 26.6 26.3 1.7 78.7 73.5 24.2 25.1 25.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 25.4 25.9 25.6 1.6 76.2 71.8 23.6 24.4 25.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 26.6 27.1 25.7 1.8 80.3 75.7 24.6 25.5 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 25.7 26.1 25.7 1.5 75.8 69.5 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 26.8 27.8 27.5 2.5 88.5 82.4 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 27.2 27.9 26.1 2.0 82.6 77.5 25.1 26.0 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 25.0 26.1 27.2 2.0 84.6 75.9 23.0 23.9 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 24.7 25.3 24.2 1.8 79.5 73.8 23.0 23.8 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 25.6 26.4 27.8 1.9 82.5 75.1 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 20.8 21.0 21.6 1.1 70.6 66.6 19.2 20.0 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 26.1 27.0 27.5 2.2 85.6 79.1 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 25.6 26.4 26.9 1.7 81.1 72.8 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 25.6 26.2 27.6 1.7 78.4 71.9 23.7 24.6 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 25.5 26.2 26.1 1.9 81.8 75.3 23.6 24.4 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 26.1 27.4 26.6 2.5 89.3 82.3 23.9 24.8 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 26.2 26.6 25.1 1.6 76.4 72.4 24.4 25.3 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 25.9 27.2 27.3 2.5 90.0 82.9 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 26.8 28.0 26.5 2.6 89.9 84.0 24.6 25.5 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 20.1 20.5 23.1 1.4 74.0 69.0 18.6 19.3 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 25.8 26.7 27.8 2.1 84.6 77.4 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------