***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 2.3 1.9 1.2 13.0 18.0 10.3 4.7 9.2 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 2.5 2.8 1.7 18.6 23.9 14.6 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 2.2 2.3 1.6 17.1 22.8 13.6 4.5 10.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 2.0 1.4 0.8 8.6 15.3 8.1 4.9 10.4 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 2.5 2.3 1.2 12.9 19.5 10.8 5.3 11.1 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 2.0 2.5 1.7 15.9 22.0 12.4 4.5 8.9 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 2.0 2.4 2.0 21.3 25.8 14.8 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 8.4 13.0 5.7 49.6 42.3 31.7 8.9 16.5 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 87 13 0 100 3.8 3.3 1.4 14.6 19.1 11.9 6.5 12.1 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 5.3 6.6 4.4 33.9 32.8 23.9 6.6 12.7 21.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 3.3 3.5 1.5 15.0 22.3 12.6 5.7 10.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 3.1 4.7 3.7 39.7 36.4 24.5 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 2.5 3.1 1.8 20.5 26.8 15.1 4.4 9.2 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 4.5 6.8 5.1 38.4 36.3 25.2 5.9 12.2 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 0.8 0.2 0.4 5.0 11.8 5.8 1.8 4.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 2.1 2.0 1.3 14.8 22.1 12.1 4.2 9.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 4.0 5.1 2.4 27.2 29.9 18.9 5.7 9.8 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 5.0 7.3 7.7 52.9 40.9 33.5 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 2.6 3.0 1.9 19.5 24.7 15.4 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 16.6 20.6 14.0 104.1 65.6 56.0 8.8 14.1 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 2.3 1.8 1.2 13.2 17.5 10.1 4.9 9.6 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 4.6 6.1 3.1 33.1 34.6 22.2 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 2.8 3.3 2.4 22.8 26.6 17.0 4.7 9.8 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 4.6 5.4 3.6 29.6 30.2 21.5 6.3 13.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 1.4 1.2 1.0 10.3 16.1 7.9 3.9 9.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.7 8.0 4.6 60.2 50.9 36.0 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 93 7 0 100 1.9 1.3 1.1 11.0 16.5 9.3 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 1.5 1.0 0.8 8.0 15.0 7.6 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.0 16.8 9.7 70.1 50.2 42.3 9.1 16.6 27.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 88 12 0 100 2.6 2.6 1.5 16.3 21.8 13.1 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------