***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.5 10.1 12.1 110.2 68.7 49.0 2.3 5.0 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.2 8.6 11.7 119.0 70.7 53.5 2.0 4.2 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.0 9.4 10.9 96.7 64.6 48.1 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.7 10.9 7.5 65.9 55.0 39.1 4.5 9.1 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.6 7.9 7.7 68.1 54.8 38.3 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.4 7.9 8.1 63.3 51.1 36.1 3.3 7.7 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.1 11.4 11.6 120.1 71.1 53.1 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.2 18.4 9.2 72.6 56.0 40.5 7.1 14.6 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.1 8.8 8.6 75.0 57.7 42.3 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.6 10.4 9.5 73.7 56.8 42.5 4.2 8.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.2 8.2 7.6 66.0 52.8 37.9 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.9 8.8 6.8 62.6 51.7 36.5 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.7 8.6 6.2 55.7 49.5 35.5 4.7 8.7 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.6 12.7 14.0 97.4 64.7 50.8 3.8 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.6 5.1 6.4 58.8 53.0 32.8 1.8 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.2 8.0 6.3 57.6 49.9 34.9 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.9 12.5 11.8 127.6 72.9 53.7 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.8 11.7 83.0 60.2 48.5 3.9 8.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.6 12.3 11.4 109.8 68.2 52.1 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.5 13.3 11.5 77.9 57.2 43.6 5.0 10.2 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.6 9.8 87.8 62.0 44.6 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.6 14.4 11.9 116.6 70.1 54.4 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.7 10.9 98.3 65.2 49.7 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.8 12.0 88.8 62.0 50.4 2.9 6.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.2 10.8 11.4 94.2 64.0 43.9 2.8 6.1 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 2.6 5.0 5.3 46.9 42.6 28.0 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.7 10.3 12.6 107.1 67.8 47.9 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.2 7.1 6.5 58.5 52.7 35.2 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 18.5 12.8 85.0 60.2 48.7 6.5 13.1 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.7 10.4 11.5 111.7 68.9 51.7 2.4 5.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------