***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 4.3 18.0 9.5 101.1 65.4 36.8 4.9 10.2 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 5.0 15.7 9.4 99.1 65.2 41.1 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.7 13.6 8.8 91.9 62.2 38.1 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.9 14.7 9.2 93.6 64.3 36.5 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.7 12.6 9.1 99.2 65.6 39.0 2.8 6.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.8 8.5 9.2 81.1 60.0 39.2 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 4.3 15.7 9.1 97.2 64.8 39.3 4.1 9.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 5.7 16.0 9.6 87.3 60.9 40.1 5.6 11.1 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.8 12.8 9.5 98.5 65.1 40.4 3.8 7.7 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.4 12.7 10.3 92.8 62.9 41.2 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.9 10.5 8.3 94.6 64.1 40.2 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.1 9.8 7.6 84.3 60.2 37.1 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.7 8.8 8.0 82.5 60.4 38.2 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.8 18.6 11.9 98.3 64.0 41.9 4.5 10.5 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.0 8.9 8.3 96.4 65.4 34.9 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 2.9 9.7 7.8 86.7 61.8 38.4 3.2 6.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.9 16.8 10.2 103.6 66.4 41.4 4.0 8.9 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 15.4 11.7 93.1 62.5 41.2 5.2 10.2 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.1 16.5 9.3 97.8 64.4 41.0 4.9 9.9 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.2 16.6 12.4 88.0 60.6 41.9 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.9 14.9 9.6 101.1 65.8 38.6 4.2 8.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.3 16.5 10.3 100.0 65.2 41.4 4.5 9.5 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.4 14.0 9.1 96.3 63.7 40.7 4.5 8.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.6 15.4 10.7 95.4 63.3 40.9 4.3 9.3 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.4 16.4 10.5 102.1 66.4 37.5 4.3 9.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.4 7.9 7.3 78.0 58.6 35.5 2.5 5.6 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 4.3 18.0 10.4 103.9 66.6 37.9 4.5 9.7 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.5 9.1 8.6 95.8 64.9 36.6 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.3 23.7 12.2 92.0 61.9 42.3 9.0 16.5 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.3 14.3 9.1 96.2 64.3 39.9 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------