***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.3 14.0 11.0 136.2 74.8 52.7 3.1 6.2 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.0 15.8 10.9 141.9 75.9 54.3 3.7 6.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.8 18.1 12.4 151.8 77.8 54.6 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 15.9 22.8 15.2 176.3 81.7 54.3 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.7 19.1 14.3 179.6 82.3 53.7 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.7 17.3 17.1 175.1 81.6 52.7 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.8 16.2 10.4 136.0 74.7 52.3 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.9 28.5 14.6 149.0 77.1 52.4 5.3 10.9 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.3 22.2 14.0 169.0 80.7 53.2 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.1 19.7 15.4 156.2 78.5 52.8 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.8 20.1 14.0 175.8 81.8 52.2 2.8 6.0 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.2 16.7 12.7 158.0 78.8 51.1 3.1 6.3 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.4 17.9 13.5 159.1 79.1 51.7 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.8 22.8 14.7 136.2 74.6 56.8 4.3 9.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.8 21.3 15.2 190.1 83.4 53.8 2.5 5.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.6 15.2 13.6 166.4 80.3 51.2 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.8 14.5 10.6 136.8 74.9 52.1 3.8 6.9 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.4 20.7 15.9 140.7 75.5 54.2 3.8 8.1 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.6 16.5 11.4 144.8 76.5 54.6 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 21.6 16.9 132.4 73.6 54.0 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.4 23.5 12.5 157.6 78.8 53.3 3.2 7.6 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.8 16.5 11.9 142.0 75.9 53.5 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.7 16.8 11.6 142.3 75.9 53.9 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.2 24.1 14.6 147.5 76.9 55.5 3.7 8.4 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.7 17.0 12.2 143.3 76.2 53.6 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.4 16.1 12.7 162.4 79.6 51.5 3.4 6.3 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.5 16.6 11.5 135.8 74.7 53.2 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.9 20.0 15.8 188.9 83.3 53.3 2.6 5.7 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.8 27.5 15.7 132.1 73.4 54.6 6.0 12.2 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.1 15.2 11.1 140.3 75.6 54.2 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------