***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 25.7 44.4 33.9 89.2 54.6 46.0 24.5 39.8 58.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 47.4 46.8 33.8 93.4 56.8 47.9 27.7 40.7 56.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 53.7 47.1 33.7 87.5 52.6 46.1 28.8 44.4 63.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 26.3 49.2 32.8 82.8 52.8 42.7 28.0 45.7 68.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 26.3 45.2 32.2 85.9 53.6 43.8 26.3 41.4 60.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 21.7 36.3 36.1 81.3 48.9 39.3 23.3 37.5 55.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 46.3 45.4 33.0 92.1 56.4 47.4 27.8 40.0 54.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 46.5 74.1 39.2 85.9 51.0 44.1 49.3 72.6 100.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 32.5 49.1 33.5 86.4 52.6 43.9 33.1 46.9 62.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 34.3 51.9 39.6 86.0 51.2 43.8 35.5 50.8 68.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 27.3 43.1 31.3 83.4 52.0 42.3 28.2 41.5 56.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 26.3 41.8 30.7 82.7 50.5 42.4 27.7 41.5 58.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 22.1 37.0 29.5 77.1 48.3 40.2 23.8 38.5 57.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 72.3 65.2 45.7 90.5 52.4 45.3 44.4 62.4 83.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 34.8 32.6 30.3 85.6 56.4 44.1 16.5 27.6 41.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 21.3 36.8 29.0 78.0 48.9 39.7 23.6 37.8 55.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 49.4 51.8 35.0 98.3 59.5 49.2 30.6 43.4 58.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 35.9 54.2 46.9 90.8 52.9 46.7 35.9 51.4 69.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 52.8 50.2 33.9 91.1 54.5 46.1 33.6 46.4 60.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 72.2 71.9 54.8 99.5 58.1 51.1 43.9 62.0 83.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 30.4 49.1 33.2 87.7 53.7 45.3 29.8 45.3 64.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 54.8 54.4 37.3 97.0 58.0 47.7 33.6 47.2 62.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 52.8 47.1 34.0 86.9 50.8 43.2 34.3 46.6 60.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 68.3 59.5 41.0 88.0 51.4 45.4 39.8 57.9 78.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 26.4 46.6 35.1 86.5 53.5 44.1 25.7 42.3 63.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 41.5 34.3 29.9 82.5 51.4 43.2 20.1 33.0 49.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 27.5 48.1 35.6 88.5 54.2 45.1 27.3 43.5 63.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 22.2 37.1 31.6 84.7 54.3 42.7 23.2 34.0 46.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 56.8 86.2 50.4 93.4 54.2 48.2 56.6 80.0 107.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 47.2 44.5 33.3 89.6 54.5 46.4 28.2 40.5 55.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------