***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 12.6 15.0 0.4 60.9 57.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.2 14.8 0.3 60.5 57.8 11.3 11.9 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 14.3 14.6 15.0 0.5 64.8 60.8 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 9.8 10.0 13.1 0.4 62.1 59.1 8.9 9.6 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.3 13.0 0.4 63.0 60.0 10.4 10.9 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 10.5 10.6 11.5 0.7 72.3 67.9 9.6 10.0 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.5 14.9 0.4 61.7 58.8 11.7 12.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 5.8 6.1 11.3 0.4 64.1 60.8 5.1 5.7 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.4 13.4 0.5 65.2 61.5 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 11.9 12.1 11.9 0.4 64.0 60.7 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 11.9 11.9 12.7 0.6 68.1 64.4 10.9 11.4 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 10.4 10.4 12.2 0.6 67.8 64.4 9.5 9.9 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.3 11.3 11.7 0.6 68.7 65.5 10.3 10.8 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.8 13.4 0.5 65.1 61.2 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 13.2 13.2 14.2 0.6 70.0 65.5 12.3 12.7 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 12.7 12.7 12.4 0.6 69.5 65.8 11.7 12.2 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.6 14.3 0.2 58.3 56.2 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.7 10.9 11.1 0.3 61.0 58.3 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.5 14.9 0.5 64.5 60.9 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.8 9.4 0.2 55.3 53.8 6.2 6.7 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.9 14.3 0.3 59.8 57.1 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.9 14.5 0.4 63.5 60.4 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 12.1 12.2 14.9 0.7 70.9 65.9 11.0 11.5 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.3 13.1 0.5 65.8 61.9 11.4 11.9 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.3 13.6 0.3 59.4 56.5 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 11.1 11.4 11.8 0.5 66.0 63.1 10.5 11.0 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.6 14.2 0.3 59.8 56.8 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 10.8 11.1 13.6 0.5 65.5 61.9 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.7 9.9 10.5 0.3 61.3 58.6 9.0 9.5 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.7 15.1 0.4 62.3 59.2 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------