***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 13.7 16.1 -0.1 48.3 47.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 13.7 12.9 15.5 -0.4 41.1 41.9 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 15.8 15.5 16.1 -0.1 48.6 48.5 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 11.2 11.0 14.5 0.1 51.2 50.6 9.8 10.9 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 12.6 12.3 14.5 -0.1 48.7 48.7 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 11.7 12.1 13.0 0.5 63.1 61.1 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 13.9 13.4 15.9 -0.2 46.1 46.1 12.7 13.7 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 7.1 6.9 12.5 0.0 51.1 50.7 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 13.7 13.5 14.9 0.0 50.1 50.0 12.6 13.4 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 13.5 13.3 13.2 0.0 49.3 49.4 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 13.2 13.1 14.1 0.0 51.3 51.1 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 11.6 11.7 13.4 0.2 54.5 53.5 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 12.7 12.8 13.3 0.2 55.1 54.4 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.3 13.6 14.5 -0.3 41.7 42.5 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 14.9 15.1 16.2 0.4 58.6 57.5 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 14.1 14.2 14.0 0.2 55.5 54.8 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.3 13.4 15.1 -0.5 40.2 41.1 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 12.2 11.6 12.1 -0.2 43.5 44.5 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 13.8 13.4 15.8 -0.2 46.0 46.2 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.6 10.1 -0.4 40.5 42.3 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 13.5 12.9 15.7 -0.3 44.1 44.5 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 13.2 12.8 15.6 -0.2 45.8 46.2 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 13.3 13.3 16.1 0.2 54.5 53.7 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 13.8 13.3 14.2 -0.2 46.0 46.4 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.2 15.0 -0.3 43.9 43.9 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 12.8 12.8 13.1 0.2 56.1 55.3 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.1 15.3 -0.3 43.7 43.7 12.4 13.5 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 12.6 12.7 15.2 0.2 54.1 53.3 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 11.1 10.6 11.5 -0.1 46.1 46.9 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 14.0 13.5 16.0 -0.3 44.9 45.1 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------