***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 12.6 14.9 0.7 63.3 59.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.3 14.7 0.8 64.2 59.9 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.7 14.8 0.9 67.3 62.0 12.8 13.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.6 12.9 0.7 65.1 60.8 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.5 12.9 0.9 67.9 62.9 9.3 10.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 10.5 10.7 11.3 1.0 71.0 65.4 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.5 14.7 0.7 63.5 59.3 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 6.7 6.7 11.3 1.0 69.5 64.1 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.7 13.3 1.0 69.5 64.0 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 12.2 12.4 11.8 1.0 69.7 64.1 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 11.8 12.0 12.6 1.1 72.7 66.4 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 10.4 10.5 12.2 1.1 72.0 66.2 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 11.2 11.3 11.6 1.0 71.2 65.8 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 12.8 13.0 13.4 1.1 70.8 65.0 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.1 13.8 0.9 69.0 63.6 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 12.8 12.9 12.3 1.1 71.8 66.0 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.6 14.2 0.6 61.3 57.7 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.3 11.0 11.1 1.0 68.3 63.1 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.5 14.8 0.9 66.7 61.8 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.8 9.6 0.7 62.9 59.4 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.1 14.1 0.8 65.5 60.9 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.8 14.3 0.7 64.3 60.4 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 12.0 12.2 14.8 1.1 70.7 64.8 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 12.3 12.5 13.1 1.1 70.7 64.7 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.3 13.4 0.7 63.9 59.7 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 11.4 11.4 11.8 0.9 68.8 63.9 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.7 14.1 0.7 63.6 59.4 10.8 11.9 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 11.0 11.0 13.3 0.8 67.5 62.5 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.4 10.6 0.9 68.0 63.0 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.8 14.9 0.8 65.2 60.6 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------