***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 25.2 25.5 1.0 72.7 66.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 25.7 25.9 25.5 1.2 73.5 67.3 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 25.6 25.9 25.7 1.1 74.1 67.7 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 18.0 18.8 23.9 0.9 68.6 63.9 16.7 17.7 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 26.1 26.3 24.1 0.9 70.3 65.4 24.3 25.2 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 25.2 25.7 22.4 1.2 76.0 70.2 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 25.3 25.5 25.3 1.1 72.4 66.5 23.4 24.3 25.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 14.6 14.8 22.6 1.0 72.3 66.9 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 25.7 26.0 24.5 1.0 72.3 67.0 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 25.5 25.8 23.3 1.1 72.7 67.3 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 25.9 26.2 23.9 1.1 73.7 68.0 24.1 25.0 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 25.3 25.6 23.7 1.1 73.8 68.1 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 26.2 26.7 23.5 1.2 74.7 68.8 24.5 25.3 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 25.6 26.1 24.2 1.2 75.9 68.9 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 25.5 26.4 24.8 1.0 70.8 66.0 24.4 25.3 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 26.8 27.2 23.8 1.1 74.2 68.4 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 24.9 25.2 25.1 1.2 74.3 67.9 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 24.6 24.8 22.4 1.0 71.9 66.4 22.9 23.7 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 25.5 25.9 25.7 1.3 75.7 69.0 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 20.7 20.9 20.4 0.9 69.4 64.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 25.1 25.8 25.1 0.9 69.6 64.5 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 25.5 25.9 25.3 1.3 75.7 69.0 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 25.6 26.1 25.7 1.4 79.0 71.5 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 25.3 25.6 24.1 1.1 74.8 68.3 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 25.7 25.8 24.1 0.9 70.5 64.9 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 25.4 26.2 23.3 0.9 70.5 65.5 24.2 25.1 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 25.4 25.7 24.7 1.0 71.4 65.5 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 25.6 26.3 24.4 0.9 68.8 64.3 24.4 25.3 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 20.0 20.2 21.5 0.9 70.3 65.0 18.4 19.2 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 25.4 25.7 25.7 1.1 73.1 67.0 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------