***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 26.8 26.1 1.2 68.2 61.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 26.3 26.5 26.1 1.4 70.4 63.2 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 25.1 26.3 26.3 1.4 69.8 63.0 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.9 18.8 24.9 1.2 67.2 60.9 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.7 26.6 24.8 1.2 67.1 60.8 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.6 25.7 23.2 1.5 70.2 62.8 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 24.9 26.1 25.9 1.3 69.4 62.5 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.8 23.4 1.3 67.7 61.5 12.0 13.4 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 25.3 26.3 25.1 1.3 67.5 61.2 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.8 25.8 23.9 1.3 67.6 61.5 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 25.4 26.5 24.7 1.4 69.4 62.3 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 24.6 25.7 24.5 1.4 69.2 62.3 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 25.6 26.7 24.2 1.5 69.5 62.0 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 26.0 26.3 24.8 1.5 70.5 63.3 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 25.6 26.8 25.6 1.4 70.2 63.4 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.2 27.3 24.5 1.4 69.5 62.1 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 25.6 25.9 25.8 1.5 71.4 64.0 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.0 24.9 23.1 1.2 66.8 61.1 22.0 23.5 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 26.1 26.4 26.3 1.5 71.6 64.0 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.2 20.8 20.9 1.0 63.8 59.0 18.2 19.6 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 25.2 26.2 25.7 1.2 66.8 60.8 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 26.2 26.5 25.9 1.6 72.6 64.8 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 26.1 26.5 26.3 1.7 72.9 64.9 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.9 24.7 1.4 69.6 63.0 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 25.2 26.3 24.8 1.3 69.0 62.0 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 25.2 26.0 24.1 1.2 66.4 60.0 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 25.1 26.1 25.3 1.3 68.5 61.8 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.6 26.5 25.3 1.3 67.5 61.2 23.9 25.2 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.6 20.3 22.0 1.1 65.1 60.0 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 25.0 26.3 26.3 1.4 69.8 62.7 22.9 24.4 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------