***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 26.4 25.3 1.4 69.2 64.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 26.1 26.2 25.3 1.5 69.1 64.1 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 25.2 26.4 25.4 1.5 69.3 64.5 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 18.2 19.4 23.8 1.3 67.2 62.6 16.0 17.7 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 25.7 26.8 23.9 1.4 68.1 63.4 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 25.9 26.0 22.2 1.5 70.1 64.1 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 25.7 25.8 25.1 1.4 68.9 63.9 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.1 15.2 22.4 1.3 68.1 62.8 12.2 13.7 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 25.3 26.5 24.1 1.4 68.5 63.8 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 25.0 26.1 23.0 1.4 68.5 63.5 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 26.4 26.7 23.7 1.5 70.6 65.0 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 24.7 26.0 23.5 1.5 69.6 63.8 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 25.7 27.1 23.1 1.5 70.0 64.0 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 25.0 26.2 23.8 1.5 68.8 63.9 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 26.8 26.9 24.4 1.3 68.6 63.5 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 26.2 27.7 23.5 1.5 70.2 64.4 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 25.0 25.2 24.9 1.6 69.6 64.4 22.1 23.6 24.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.1 25.0 22.1 1.3 66.7 62.3 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 25.8 26.1 25.4 1.6 69.9 64.8 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 20.3 21.0 20.0 1.1 64.1 60.0 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 25.4 26.5 24.8 1.3 67.6 63.2 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 25.7 26.0 25.0 1.6 70.2 64.9 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 25.8 26.2 25.3 1.7 71.0 65.6 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 25.8 26.0 23.8 1.5 68.7 64.0 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 25.1 26.3 23.9 1.4 68.8 64.0 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 25.6 26.4 23.0 1.2 65.5 60.6 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 25.0 26.2 24.5 1.4 69.1 64.2 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.8 26.8 24.1 1.3 67.3 62.6 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.5 20.3 21.1 1.2 64.9 60.8 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 25.9 26.1 25.4 1.5 69.1 64.2 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------