***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 23.7 23.5 0.6 58.3 55.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 23.8 24.0 23.7 0.7 59.7 56.5 21.6 23.2 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 21.4 24.1 23.7 0.7 59.8 56.7 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.7 21.8 0.3 54.8 54.1 14.7 16.3 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.4 22.0 0.5 56.9 55.2 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.8 20.0 0.5 57.8 57.1 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.6 23.4 0.6 58.9 56.0 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.2 13.6 20.6 0.6 58.4 56.7 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.3 22.4 0.6 58.4 56.0 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 21.3 24.0 21.2 0.6 58.9 56.6 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 24.3 24.5 21.8 0.7 59.3 57.1 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.8 21.6 0.6 59.0 57.3 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 22.3 24.9 21.1 0.6 58.4 57.2 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 21.1 24.6 22.4 0.9 62.2 58.3 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.0 22.2 0.4 55.2 54.8 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 25.3 25.3 21.5 0.6 58.3 56.9 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 23.0 23.3 23.3 0.7 60.4 56.8 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 20.5 23.3 20.5 0.6 59.0 56.7 20.8 22.4 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 23.6 24.0 23.9 0.8 61.2 57.5 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 16.8 19.4 18.5 0.5 56.6 55.8 17.2 18.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 21.7 24.1 23.0 0.5 57.5 55.3 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 21.1 24.3 23.5 0.8 62.2 58.1 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 21.2 24.4 23.8 0.9 63.2 58.8 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 21.2 24.2 22.2 0.8 61.0 57.6 21.5 23.1 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 21.4 23.7 22.1 0.5 57.3 55.4 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 24.6 24.5 21.1 0.4 56.2 55.8 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 21.3 23.7 22.7 0.6 57.8 55.6 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.2 22.0 0.3 54.6 54.3 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 16.0 18.9 19.6 0.6 58.0 56.3 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 23.6 23.8 23.8 0.7 59.4 56.3 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------