***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 43.3 36.0 88.4 52.9 44.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 28.6 43.3 38.3 88.6 52.1 43.1 29.3 41.5 56.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 24.6 40.6 34.5 84.2 48.8 42.4 26.1 41.9 62.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 25.4 52.4 38.5 91.7 56.0 46.7 27.2 45.0 67.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 24.5 42.5 36.9 87.2 52.6 45.0 25.3 40.0 58.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 21.3 44.7 47.8 101.7 59.3 48.6 22.1 35.5 52.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 27.2 43.1 39.5 90.4 53.3 44.0 28.4 40.5 54.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 45.8 70.8 40.2 89.5 51.0 44.0 47.0 69.4 95.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 30.3 45.0 36.2 84.4 49.4 43.2 31.5 45.5 62.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 33.2 47.1 40.2 84.8 47.7 42.0 34.4 49.4 66.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 26.5 42.8 34.1 89.2 53.3 44.9 27.6 40.1 55.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 25.1 43.5 33.0 91.6 53.8 44.6 26.9 40.1 56.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 19.6 41.1 38.3 93.4 53.7 44.5 23.0 37.4 55.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 36.3 51.1 41.8 81.5 45.1 40.5 37.7 57.1 80.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 15.7 35.2 35.9 97.2 59.1 47.9 16.8 27.6 41.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 20.4 39.6 36.1 91.9 53.8 44.8 22.2 36.1 53.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 27.8 43.2 38.2 87.1 52.0 42.5 28.7 41.6 56.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 31.9 42.6 44.3 81.3 43.6 39.4 33.0 48.8 67.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 29.3 43.8 36.5 85.9 50.5 42.4 30.0 43.5 59.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 42.1 59.1 54.2 88.6 48.7 43.3 43.1 60.7 81.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 27.1 44.8 33.8 85.4 50.8 44.3 28.7 44.0 62.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 29.7 43.6 36.7 82.9 48.9 41.1 30.4 44.8 61.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 29.9 43.4 35.3 82.8 48.2 41.4 31.8 44.7 59.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 37.6 50.2 38.9 80.1 43.7 39.2 39.2 57.0 78.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 22.5 45.8 41.4 90.8 54.3 46.0 24.6 40.9 62.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 19.0 39.7 33.3 98.1 57.6 47.0 21.3 33.3 48.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 24.0 45.5 41.5 90.7 53.8 45.8 25.6 41.2 61.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 19.5 37.5 37.0 94.6 57.4 47.2 20.6 31.9 45.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 51.1 68.3 48.5 83.9 45.2 40.7 51.9 75.6 103.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 26.7 41.7 37.7 88.5 52.1 43.7 27.8 40.2 54.8 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------