***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 9.9 8.2 68.0 52.2 42.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.9 11.2 9.6 77.5 55.6 41.6 5.0 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.1 10.6 8.4 71.3 51.7 40.0 4.6 10.1 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.6 12.2 9.6 71.4 55.7 42.5 4.7 9.8 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.7 12.3 9.2 71.2 55.1 42.6 5.0 10.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.5 8.4 8.8 69.4 52.2 36.7 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.7 9.9 79.6 55.9 41.9 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.5 17.7 9.1 73.9 53.3 41.4 9.3 16.1 25.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.7 12.1 9.2 73.8 54.3 42.4 4.9 10.5 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.3 14.0 9.8 73.1 52.9 42.0 6.6 12.6 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.7 10.6 8.2 70.5 54.4 40.7 4.6 9.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.5 10.1 7.5 74.9 55.4 40.9 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 4.5 10.4 8.5 73.4 53.0 37.9 4.8 9.3 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.1 14.9 10.9 76.8 53.6 40.7 7.0 13.4 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.0 5.6 9.0 75.8 56.7 38.5 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 4.0 9.6 8.2 69.0 52.4 37.7 4.1 8.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 4.8 9.2 9.7 73.4 52.6 38.8 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.1 11.1 10.9 75.3 53.3 43.1 5.5 10.1 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.3 9.3 9.5 77.0 55.7 42.0 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.4 14.3 12.2 78.3 54.2 43.8 6.9 12.6 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.6 8.5 70.1 53.3 42.1 3.8 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.9 10.5 9.6 69.4 51.0 38.6 5.8 10.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.1 11.3 9.5 76.9 55.1 41.2 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.8 15.2 9.9 76.0 53.4 41.7 7.0 13.5 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.8 10.7 10.0 71.1 54.3 44.9 3.9 9.0 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 2.8 8.0 6.9 74.8 53.7 35.4 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.9 9.5 9.9 72.5 53.9 44.6 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.8 9.1 72.7 55.6 39.6 3.4 6.4 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.6 17.1 12.0 79.2 54.6 44.3 7.0 14.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.4 9.4 9.2 75.4 54.4 41.3 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------