***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 13.1 12.6 117.4 69.9 47.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.7 9.6 13.0 111.2 68.1 45.4 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.0 10.3 11.4 101.5 65.3 45.6 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.4 17.3 11.8 104.0 66.5 44.7 4.9 9.9 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.9 9.9 11.0 91.0 61.9 43.2 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.3 15.6 15.0 107.7 67.5 45.1 3.9 8.4 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.7 12.9 13.3 112.6 68.5 46.6 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.5 20.4 11.4 84.4 58.9 43.1 7.3 14.9 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.3 10.8 85.8 60.1 43.8 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.8 11.3 81.2 57.8 43.7 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.1 11.0 9.8 90.0 62.0 42.5 4.3 7.7 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.2 13.8 9.7 90.4 62.0 41.2 4.5 9.2 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.6 13.2 11.8 95.6 63.9 40.3 4.3 8.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.0 11.0 12.7 85.9 59.6 44.3 3.8 7.8 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.2 10.9 11.3 118.7 70.7 44.8 1.9 4.7 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.2 12.4 10.8 97.2 64.5 41.5 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.0 10.8 12.4 106.0 66.6 43.5 2.8 6.0 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.8 10.4 12.4 78.0 55.7 44.2 4.5 8.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.7 13.8 12.3 106.3 66.8 45.0 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.7 14.5 15.3 83.7 57.3 44.9 6.3 11.6 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.3 10.4 10.6 97.3 64.0 45.1 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.2 13.3 11.9 99.2 64.8 42.5 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.9 10.4 11.8 99.0 64.8 44.8 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.4 9.3 11.4 81.4 57.9 44.1 3.1 6.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.4 12.8 13.9 114.0 68.7 48.0 2.7 6.3 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.6 11.3 10.5 108.5 67.9 41.5 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.0 11.9 14.3 119.2 70.1 48.6 2.5 5.7 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.4 11.7 11.1 106.5 67.5 43.8 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.4 17.3 13.5 80.2 56.3 44.4 7.2 13.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.3 12.8 13.0 113.4 68.7 46.6 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------