***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 11.2 8.3 80.2 59.3 41.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.0 11.0 9.1 76.7 57.0 42.2 4.5 8.7 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.6 7.9 77.7 57.6 42.5 3.2 7.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.6 13.7 9.7 96.5 64.9 45.9 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.9 12.4 9.8 98.6 64.9 46.8 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.7 10.7 14.0 116.9 70.4 52.1 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.1 10.5 9.6 78.2 57.5 41.8 3.8 8.0 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.5 20.1 12.4 115.4 69.6 51.0 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.0 11.7 9.7 96.8 64.0 46.7 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.2 11.9 105.2 66.5 49.4 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.1 11.6 10.2 108.4 67.9 48.4 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.4 12.4 9.7 111.0 68.7 48.3 3.2 6.4 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.1 10.5 10.5 105.9 67.4 48.4 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.9 13.7 10.4 80.2 58.0 45.3 4.5 10.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.4 8.9 9.0 98.4 66.1 44.1 2.3 4.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.6 11.0 10.2 105.6 67.3 48.4 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.0 13.1 9.8 82.5 59.4 43.0 4.6 9.4 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.2 15.7 12.8 93.6 62.7 49.2 5.6 10.6 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 10.4 8.3 74.1 56.1 42.5 4.3 8.5 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.0 21.2 16.0 105.1 66.6 52.3 7.3 13.1 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.5 12.9 8.4 91.6 62.7 45.0 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.1 11.3 9.2 80.8 58.4 44.0 3.9 8.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.1 8.9 7.8 72.4 55.9 43.3 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.7 10.1 82.5 58.5 45.7 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.5 9.6 87.0 61.4 45.2 4.2 9.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.5 11.8 9.5 116.8 70.5 50.3 2.2 5.1 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.5 12.3 9.3 79.6 58.6 42.8 4.0 8.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.5 8.8 9.8 103.3 67.0 46.3 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.8 22.6 14.0 96.1 63.9 50.4 7.9 14.7 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.8 10.4 8.7 75.6 56.5 41.4 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------