***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 12.0 12.4 15.8 0.6 61.2 59.0 10.9 11.8 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.5 15.5 0.7 62.6 60.1 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 14.3 14.7 16.0 0.6 61.4 59.4 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 9.6 10.2 13.5 0.8 64.8 61.9 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.0 13.5 0.3 55.8 54.5 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 10.1 10.4 11.4 0.5 60.9 59.2 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.8 15.7 0.8 64.0 61.1 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 5.6 5.6 11.1 0.3 55.9 55.0 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.1 13.4 0.2 54.7 53.5 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 11.9 11.9 12.0 0.3 56.0 54.8 10.8 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.6 11.6 13.0 0.3 56.3 55.2 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.0 10.0 12.0 0.3 56.5 55.4 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 10.9 10.9 11.6 0.2 53.1 52.5 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 12.6 12.6 13.3 0.2 53.8 52.8 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 13.4 13.5 15.3 1.0 69.9 66.8 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 12.4 12.4 12.5 0.3 56.6 55.4 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 12.6 13.0 15.3 0.7 62.8 60.1 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 10.7 10.8 11.2 0.3 55.5 54.5 9.5 10.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.6 15.6 0.7 62.5 60.2 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 6.9 6.7 9.3 0.1 52.3 52.2 5.7 6.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 11.7 11.8 14.8 0.3 56.0 54.6 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 11.8 12.1 15.5 0.8 63.8 61.2 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 11.7 12.1 15.6 0.7 62.8 60.5 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 12.1 12.2 13.3 0.3 57.0 55.7 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 12.1 12.1 14.5 0.3 55.0 53.5 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 11.1 11.1 11.3 0.2 54.9 53.9 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 12.5 12.8 15.1 0.5 58.1 56.2 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 10.6 11.1 13.8 0.7 64.7 62.2 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 9.6 9.6 10.6 0.2 54.2 53.7 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 12.6 13.1 15.9 0.8 64.1 61.5 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------