***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.6 15.5 0.9 65.2 60.6 10.9 11.8 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.4 15.2 1.0 65.9 60.8 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.6 15.6 0.9 65.9 61.4 12.8 13.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.4 12.7 0.7 62.5 59.5 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.0 10.8 12.4 0.4 57.1 55.5 9.3 10.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.0 10.8 0.5 60.4 58.3 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.6 15.4 1.0 66.3 61.3 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.8 10.4 0.3 55.5 55.1 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 10.6 12.0 12.6 0.4 57.1 55.2 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.1 11.5 11.1 0.3 55.6 54.6 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 9.5 11.0 11.7 0.3 56.3 55.3 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.7 11.0 0.3 56.8 55.8 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.2 10.4 0.2 54.5 53.2 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.3 12.7 0.4 58.1 55.8 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.9 14.0 0.9 66.4 62.4 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.0 11.3 0.4 57.0 55.4 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.8 14.9 0.9 65.0 59.8 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.2 10.3 0.3 55.7 54.4 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.5 15.2 0.9 66.2 61.0 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.8 6.2 8.3 0.1 52.2 52.2 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.7 14.2 0.5 59.3 56.8 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.9 14.8 0.9 66.1 60.6 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.9 15.0 0.9 66.0 61.0 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.8 12.5 0.5 59.5 57.1 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.1 13.8 0.6 59.8 57.1 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.8 10.5 0.5 59.2 57.0 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.7 14.7 0.8 62.9 59.1 10.8 11.9 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.7 12.9 0.7 62.9 59.9 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.4 9.7 0.2 53.4 53.1 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.9 15.5 1.0 67.4 62.2 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------