***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9.7 11.2 13.7 0.2 54.3 51.3 9.9 10.9 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 9.7 11.1 13.4 0.2 54.2 51.1 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 11.9 13.3 13.8 0.2 54.2 51.5 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.6 10.9 0.1 51.1 50.1 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 8.7 9.9 10.8 -0.2 46.3 47.4 9.0 10.1 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.1 9.2 9.3 0.0 49.6 49.4 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.4 13.7 0.4 56.5 52.7 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 3.9 4.9 8.9 -0.2 45.2 47.0 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 9.9 10.8 11.0 -0.2 45.3 46.4 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.5 9.6 -0.3 44.4 46.1 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 9.3 10.2 10.2 -0.2 45.4 47.3 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 8.2 9.1 9.4 -0.2 45.5 47.3 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.5 8.9 -0.4 43.0 45.0 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 10.2 11.2 11.0 -0.2 45.7 45.9 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.7 12.2 0.2 54.3 52.3 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.1 10.9 9.7 -0.3 45.1 46.7 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.4 13.1 0.2 53.5 50.5 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 8.4 9.4 8.7 -0.3 43.8 45.3 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 10.0 11.3 13.4 0.2 53.4 50.7 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.7 5.6 6.9 -0.4 42.6 44.4 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 9.5 10.6 12.5 -0.1 48.1 47.7 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 9.1 10.4 13.0 0.1 52.4 49.8 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.4 10.8 13.2 0.1 52.6 50.4 9.6 10.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 9.6 10.6 10.8 -0.2 46.6 46.9 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 9.9 11.2 12.2 0.0 49.7 48.6 10.2 11.3 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.1 10.0 9.0 -0.2 47.0 47.7 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 9.8 11.4 13.0 0.1 52.5 50.2 10.0 11.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.7 11.1 0.1 51.3 50.3 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 7.4 8.4 8.2 -0.4 43.0 44.6 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.6 13.7 0.3 56.1 52.4 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------