***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.5 15.4 0.6 65.8 62.7 11.6 12.1 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 12.5 12.4 15.1 0.6 65.4 62.3 11.3 11.9 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 14.3 14.6 15.5 0.5 63.6 61.2 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 10.2 10.2 13.0 0.6 66.9 63.9 8.9 9.6 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.0 12.9 0.2 55.6 55.1 10.4 10.9 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 10.5 10.3 11.0 0.4 63.4 61.3 9.6 10.0 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 12.7 12.7 15.3 0.7 67.1 63.8 11.7 12.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.9 10.7 0.2 56.9 56.1 5.1 5.7 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.2 12.2 13.0 0.2 55.8 55.1 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.9 11.5 0.2 56.1 55.3 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.5 11.6 12.4 0.2 56.9 56.3 10.9 11.4 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.2 11.5 0.2 58.0 57.3 9.5 9.9 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.9 11.1 0.1 54.0 53.8 10.3 10.8 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.5 12.8 0.1 52.4 51.9 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.4 14.7 0.9 75.8 71.3 12.3 12.7 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.4 11.9 0.2 57.5 56.8 11.7 12.2 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 12.6 12.8 14.8 0.6 65.3 62.0 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.6 10.7 0.1 53.5 53.1 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.5 15.1 0.5 64.6 61.7 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.7 8.8 0.0 50.3 50.7 6.2 6.7 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.8 11.8 14.4 0.3 57.6 56.4 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.6 11.9 14.9 0.5 63.7 61.0 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 11.7 12.0 15.0 0.5 63.9 61.2 11.0 11.5 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.0 12.8 0.2 56.0 55.0 11.4 11.9 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.2 12.3 14.1 0.3 58.1 56.4 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.1 10.8 0.2 56.2 55.7 10.5 11.0 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.7 14.7 0.5 62.8 60.2 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 11.1 11.1 13.3 0.6 68.3 65.3 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.6 10.1 0.0 51.2 51.2 9.0 9.5 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 12.9 12.9 15.5 0.7 67.3 64.1 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------