***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 26.4 26.9 27.8 0.7 58.7 57.8 24.6 26.1 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 26.3 26.6 27.6 0.6 56.8 56.0 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 26.4 26.1 27.3 0.0 50.5 50.4 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 19.6 19.5 24.7 0.2 52.0 51.9 17.9 19.3 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 27.3 25.8 24.7 -1.0 37.8 39.2 25.4 26.8 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 26.1 25.2 22.7 -0.5 42.5 44.0 24.5 25.8 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 26.1 26.5 27.7 0.7 58.6 57.3 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 13.5 13.5 21.8 -1.7 29.3 31.0 13.9 15.2 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 26.6 25.4 25.6 -0.8 39.9 41.1 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 24.5 24.7 23.0 -1.5 32.2 33.6 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 27.2 25.2 24.6 -1.3 34.1 35.7 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 26.6 24.6 23.3 -1.3 33.3 34.9 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 27.4 25.8 24.4 -1.1 36.2 38.0 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 26.5 25.0 24.9 -1.0 38.6 39.4 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 27.4 28.0 27.9 1.0 63.6 62.0 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 28.1 26.7 24.6 -0.8 39.3 40.7 26.1 27.6 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 25.6 26.0 27.2 0.7 58.6 57.5 23.9 25.3 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 23.5 23.5 21.9 -1.7 29.9 31.4 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 26.2 26.2 27.5 0.4 54.4 53.9 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 19.3 19.2 19.7 -2.0 24.8 26.6 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 26.7 25.7 26.6 -0.5 43.4 44.2 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 26.1 26.2 27.1 0.4 55.3 54.6 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 26.2 26.2 27.4 0.3 53.9 53.5 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.2 24.6 24.7 -1.1 37.3 38.3 24.2 25.7 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 26.7 26.2 26.0 -0.1 48.4 48.8 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 27.3 25.5 23.0 -1.2 34.2 36.0 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 26.3 26.5 26.9 0.5 56.0 55.5 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 27.3 27.3 25.8 0.2 53.2 53.0 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 18.7 18.7 21.0 -1.9 27.0 28.6 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 26.2 26.6 27.8 0.6 57.3 56.5 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------