***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 26.1 26.5 27.4 1.7 70.9 67.2 23.0 24.5 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 25.1 26.4 27.3 1.5 69.1 65.1 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 26.1 26.0 27.3 1.4 66.8 63.5 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 18.8 18.8 24.7 1.3 66.8 64.2 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 25.6 25.6 24.7 0.5 56.4 55.7 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 24.4 24.6 22.4 0.5 57.1 56.3 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 25.9 26.2 27.3 1.6 69.9 65.8 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 13.8 13.5 22.4 0.0 50.7 50.8 12.0 13.4 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 25.2 25.3 25.3 0.6 57.3 56.4 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 24.7 24.5 23.3 0.2 52.3 52.1 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 25.3 25.2 24.6 0.3 54.2 53.9 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 24.5 24.4 23.8 0.3 54.1 53.8 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 25.5 25.4 24.0 0.3 53.4 53.3 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.0 24.8 0.5 56.5 55.5 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 26.8 27.0 26.8 1.8 72.8 69.2 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 26.1 26.2 24.4 0.5 56.9 56.1 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 25.5 25.7 26.9 1.6 69.5 65.2 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 23.9 23.5 22.4 0.1 50.7 50.8 22.0 23.5 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 24.9 26.0 27.3 1.5 68.5 64.7 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 20.0 19.3 20.0 -0.3 46.3 47.2 18.2 19.6 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 25.2 25.6 26.3 0.8 60.1 58.6 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 26.0 26.1 26.9 1.5 68.9 64.9 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 26.1 26.1 27.3 1.6 68.9 65.0 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 24.7 24.7 24.8 0.5 56.4 55.3 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 25.2 25.7 25.4 1.0 62.7 60.9 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 25.2 25.3 23.6 0.6 57.5 56.6 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 26.0 26.1 26.3 1.4 67.8 64.8 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 26.5 26.5 25.4 1.3 66.9 64.3 23.9 25.2 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 19.4 18.8 21.5 -0.2 47.9 48.5 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 26.0 26.3 27.5 1.7 70.4 66.2 22.9 24.4 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------