***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.6 26.2 1.1 62.3 59.5 22.9 24.4 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.7 26.3 1.2 63.8 60.4 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.7 26.4 1.1 62.2 59.2 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.6 24.0 0.9 59.2 57.1 16.0 17.7 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 23.3 25.4 23.8 0.3 52.9 52.6 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.5 21.7 0.4 54.9 54.1 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 25.8 25.4 26.2 1.3 64.2 60.8 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.9 13.7 22.0 0.1 50.9 51.0 12.2 13.7 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 23.0 25.1 24.1 0.3 52.8 52.5 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 22.7 24.6 22.7 0.1 51.3 51.3 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 23.0 25.1 23.6 0.3 52.7 52.4 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 22.3 24.4 23.3 0.3 53.0 52.6 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.3 22.6 0.1 51.3 51.6 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.0 23.8 0.4 53.9 53.1 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 25.8 26.4 25.0 1.2 63.0 60.1 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 26.4 26.1 23.4 0.4 54.1 53.6 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.7 25.9 1.1 63.2 59.9 22.1 23.6 24.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 22.0 23.7 22.2 0.1 50.9 51.0 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.5 26.4 1.2 63.6 60.1 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 18.0 19.5 19.5 -0.3 46.5 47.8 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 23.3 25.4 25.1 0.5 55.5 54.4 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.3 25.8 1.1 63.0 59.7 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.5 26.2 1.2 62.8 59.3 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.8 23.9 0.4 54.7 53.7 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.2 24.1 0.6 56.2 54.9 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 25.6 25.7 23.3 0.7 57.4 56.1 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.1 25.4 25.1 0.9 59.9 57.8 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 25.8 26.1 24.3 0.9 60.1 57.9 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 17.4 18.9 21.0 -0.2 48.2 49.1 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.6 26.4 1.3 64.4 60.9 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------