***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 24.7 25.5 26.5 1.1 68.8 65.4 23.5 24.4 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 24.8 25.6 26.4 1.1 67.8 64.6 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 24.9 25.4 26.4 0.9 64.4 61.6 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 17.9 18.4 23.9 0.8 63.1 60.8 16.7 17.7 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 25.5 25.2 23.9 0.0 50.5 50.5 24.3 25.2 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 24.5 24.4 21.7 0.1 52.8 52.4 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 24.5 25.3 26.4 1.1 68.9 65.5 23.4 24.3 25.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.5 21.7 -0.4 44.0 45.0 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 25.1 24.9 24.4 0.1 51.5 51.4 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 24.9 24.3 22.6 -0.2 45.9 46.5 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 25.3 24.9 23.7 -0.1 48.1 48.5 24.1 25.0 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 24.6 24.2 23.0 -0.1 48.0 48.4 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 25.6 25.2 23.0 -0.2 46.9 47.6 24.5 25.3 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 24.9 24.7 23.9 0.1 51.1 50.3 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 26.1 26.4 25.7 1.3 70.7 67.4 24.4 25.3 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 26.2 26.0 23.6 0.1 51.6 51.3 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 24.1 24.8 26.0 1.1 67.9 64.6 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.4 21.8 -0.3 44.3 45.1 22.9 23.7 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 24.6 25.3 26.4 1.0 66.8 63.5 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 19.0 19.3 19.4 -0.7 38.0 39.8 19.1 19.9 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 25.1 25.1 25.4 0.3 55.5 54.6 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 24.6 25.3 25.9 1.0 66.3 63.2 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 24.7 25.3 26.3 1.0 66.2 62.6 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.4 23.9 0.1 51.4 50.9 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 25.0 25.2 24.5 0.5 58.7 57.3 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 25.3 25.2 22.9 0.1 52.3 51.9 24.2 25.1 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 24.8 25.3 25.5 0.9 65.4 62.8 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 25.5 26.0 24.5 0.8 63.8 61.4 24.4 25.3 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 18.3 18.8 20.8 -0.6 40.3 41.7 18.4 19.2 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 24.7 25.5 26.6 1.2 69.1 65.6 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------