***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 11.6 9.9 6.7 65.3 53.4 44.2 4.4 8.7 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 5.2 7.8 5.1 47.0 44.5 36.0 5.0 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.5 10.9 6.8 64.0 52.5 42.4 4.6 10.1 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.9 15.7 9.5 94.5 63.3 51.4 4.7 9.8 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.2 19.2 10.0 110.9 68.0 54.0 5.0 10.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.2 15.9 14.5 122.0 71.3 58.8 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.7 5.1 4.8 45.8 43.9 36.3 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 20.7 26.4 14.0 108.7 67.3 54.1 9.3 16.1 25.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.9 15.3 8.5 86.6 60.7 47.0 4.9 10.5 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.2 21.0 13.1 101.2 65.2 51.9 6.6 12.6 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.6 19.1 11.5 125.0 71.6 56.1 4.6 9.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.3 14.9 10.8 109.3 67.2 53.2 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.2 20.8 13.5 135.7 74.3 58.9 4.8 9.3 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 18.1 16.9 10.8 76.2 57.1 43.1 7.0 13.4 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.9 8.3 100.9 66.2 48.0 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.0 18.6 11.9 123.1 71.2 57.1 4.1 8.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.6 5.9 4.0 37.0 37.7 30.1 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.0 15.4 14.5 98.4 63.9 51.0 5.5 10.1 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.1 7.4 6.3 55.7 48.8 38.5 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 15.7 24.3 18.8 129.0 72.4 58.7 6.9 12.6 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.2 10.4 7.1 73.7 55.6 43.8 3.8 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.5 7.5 4.6 40.0 39.7 31.5 5.8 10.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.9 10.5 7.6 64.6 53.2 41.8 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.2 18.6 10.4 82.7 59.2 46.8 7.0 13.5 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.8 8.3 81.0 59.0 48.7 3.9 9.0 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 14.4 16.1 12.6 135.0 74.1 61.0 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.3 10.1 7.5 70.5 55.2 45.6 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.4 11.6 10.2 108.1 67.7 52.2 3.4 6.4 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.9 24.7 15.3 102.9 65.2 51.6 7.0 14.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.9 7.7 5.7 53.8 48.1 38.9 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------