***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.4 8.1 70.7 56.5 41.0 2.7 5.8 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.8 8.1 76.5 57.6 42.2 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.6 8.3 73.5 56.9 42.3 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.1 12.9 8.7 74.3 57.5 41.1 4.9 9.9 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.4 7.8 7.7 69.1 54.5 37.2 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.7 10.9 9.8 78.3 57.3 39.8 3.9 8.4 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.1 7.8 6.9 66.8 53.9 37.5 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.5 21.9 10.3 88.9 60.7 43.3 7.3 14.9 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.5 8.6 8.5 76.8 57.7 43.4 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.9 10.2 10.3 83.4 59.0 42.0 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.7 8.8 8.7 74.5 54.5 35.6 4.3 7.7 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 4.3 13.3 9.3 91.0 61.0 42.5 4.5 9.2 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.9 12.1 9.8 86.5 61.1 38.8 4.3 8.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.3 11.5 12.5 87.5 60.9 45.6 3.8 7.8 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.2 6.3 7.8 70.0 57.0 36.5 1.9 4.7 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.4 10.3 9.3 82.8 59.2 40.0 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.9 7.9 7.8 77.1 57.8 41.6 2.8 6.0 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.7 12.0 11.9 87.6 60.1 46.9 4.5 8.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.7 10.2 8.6 78.4 58.2 43.5 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.3 15.4 12.3 88.6 59.2 45.7 6.3 11.6 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.1 8.2 72.8 56.7 42.6 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.1 11.3 9.1 82.1 59.5 41.9 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.1 8.3 9.3 80.0 58.9 45.7 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.8 10.9 83.4 59.0 44.9 3.1 6.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.1 6.9 7.9 61.2 52.2 37.4 2.7 6.3 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.2 8.7 9.8 86.3 59.9 41.0 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.5 8.2 65.8 53.6 40.2 2.5 5.7 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.4 8.7 8.3 74.2 58.1 38.8 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.6 19.8 13.2 91.2 60.7 47.5 7.2 13.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 3.1 8.5 8.1 73.5 56.8 40.8 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------