***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.2 9.0 9.7 81.0 59.6 40.2 3.3 6.5 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 3.5 11.0 10.2 92.6 63.1 41.1 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.3 10.7 9.8 79.3 59.0 41.7 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.0 8.0 60.2 53.0 39.2 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.5 8.0 62.3 53.3 39.5 2.6 5.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.5 8.9 67.5 55.0 39.4 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.8 12.6 10.6 99.3 65.3 41.2 4.1 7.8 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 11.9 9.3 69.5 54.8 41.4 4.7 10.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.9 8.1 8.7 65.6 54.3 40.3 3.2 6.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.5 9.5 66.7 53.8 40.7 3.8 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.4 6.5 7.2 61.1 52.6 38.7 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.6 7.2 63.0 53.1 39.3 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.3 7.4 7.4 62.9 53.1 39.1 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.7 13.6 12.5 83.2 60.1 44.6 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.8 7.2 7.4 62.7 54.6 37.5 2.6 5.9 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.9 5.6 6.9 59.0 51.6 38.1 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.8 10.7 9.8 92.5 63.2 41.4 4.0 7.3 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.4 8.9 11.0 71.2 54.6 42.8 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.3 11.0 10.3 90.3 62.4 41.5 3.4 7.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.9 13.3 83.1 58.6 44.0 4.1 8.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.2 9.2 71.6 56.7 40.4 3.4 7.8 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.4 10.4 10.4 89.9 62.4 41.0 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.6 10.9 10.5 88.0 61.9 43.3 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.0 11.2 10.6 73.8 56.2 42.9 3.7 8.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.6 9.8 75.4 58.2 41.2 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.1 7.2 6.8 60.1 51.9 36.9 3.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.4 10.3 10.3 83.2 60.6 41.3 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.1 6.5 7.2 58.2 52.2 37.3 2.6 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.0 14.4 11.8 75.4 55.9 43.9 5.5 11.6 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.5 9.0 10.3 90.4 62.4 41.1 2.4 5.5 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------