***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 47.9 35.9 32.6 76.4 47.5 42.4 23.1 38.4 58.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 28.6 38.9 31.0 75.5 46.6 40.6 29.3 41.5 56.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 52.0 39.0 33.5 76.3 47.2 42.0 26.1 41.9 62.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 26.4 47.1 36.8 82.5 51.8 44.6 27.2 45.0 67.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 24.7 42.2 36.5 85.0 52.3 45.2 25.3 40.0 58.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 23.0 40.5 45.7 91.6 55.5 47.7 22.1 35.5 52.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 28.3 36.9 29.4 73.5 45.1 39.8 28.4 40.5 54.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 47.9 77.7 46.0 93.0 55.5 49.0 47.0 69.4 95.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 31.1 46.1 36.8 82.1 50.7 44.9 31.5 45.5 62.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 34.1 51.7 45.1 87.1 52.3 46.6 34.4 49.4 66.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 27.5 43.3 37.9 88.5 53.8 45.7 27.6 40.1 55.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 48.5 45.7 38.2 92.3 56.1 48.0 26.9 40.1 56.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 46.7 48.0 43.2 99.3 60.0 49.5 23.0 37.4 55.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 37.4 57.1 48.3 84.5 50.1 44.4 37.7 57.1 80.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 16.3 30.0 32.2 80.6 53.0 44.0 16.8 27.6 41.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 22.7 42.1 39.1 92.3 56.4 47.0 22.2 36.1 53.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 28.5 37.2 29.4 72.9 44.5 40.0 28.7 41.6 56.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 33.1 51.0 50.9 88.5 52.0 47.3 33.0 48.8 67.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 51.5 41.5 33.1 77.8 47.7 41.8 30.0 43.5 59.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 71.2 71.1 59.8 100.7 58.7 52.7 43.1 60.7 81.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 28.0 44.2 34.9 80.6 50.2 43.9 28.7 44.0 62.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 53.2 40.7 33.3 76.3 45.6 40.8 30.4 44.8 61.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 51.7 42.7 35.8 79.0 47.5 42.7 31.8 44.7 59.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 38.9 57.0 43.9 83.6 50.0 44.9 39.2 57.0 78.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 24.5 39.1 35.8 78.0 48.4 42.8 24.6 40.9 62.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 21.9 40.9 40.3 96.3 58.7 49.9 21.3 33.3 48.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 50.9 39.1 34.8 77.1 47.7 42.6 25.6 41.2 61.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 19.7 34.4 35.9 84.1 53.4 44.9 20.6 31.9 45.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 52.5 80.6 54.3 91.5 53.2 48.1 51.9 75.6 103.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 47.6 37.7 31.6 75.6 46.7 40.9 27.8 40.2 54.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------