***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 47 53 100 14.3 14.7 17.2 1.2 72.2 67.8 12.5 13.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 14.1 14.5 16.9 1.2 73.1 68.8 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 16.3 16.9 17.6 1.3 75.9 71.0 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 12.0 12.8 15.4 1.6 80.5 75.2 9.5 10.6 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 13.1 13.7 15.7 1.3 75.9 71.4 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.6 12.8 1.1 75.1 69.8 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 13.6 14.8 17.2 1.3 74.7 70.3 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 7.8 8.3 13.1 1.2 77.2 72.6 5.7 6.7 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.7 15.7 1.3 77.6 72.6 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 14.1 14.6 14.0 1.2 76.5 72.0 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 13.8 14.3 15.2 1.1 75.7 71.4 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 12.3 13.0 14.4 1.5 81.2 76.0 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 12.6 13.0 13.5 0.6 62.7 60.3 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 14.7 15.0 15.3 1.1 74.6 70.0 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 15.6 16.5 17.2 1.7 85.7 79.7 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 14.8 15.1 14.5 1.1 73.7 69.5 12.8 13.8 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 14.5 15.0 16.8 1.4 75.9 71.3 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 12.7 13.2 13.4 1.2 77.3 72.2 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 14.3 14.7 17.2 1.4 76.0 71.3 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 8.9 9.5 11.7 1.3 78.4 73.1 7.1 8.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 13.8 14.2 16.6 1.1 73.4 68.8 12.1 12.9 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 13.7 14.1 17.1 1.3 75.7 71.2 11.9 12.8 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 14.0 14.7 17.6 1.7 82.9 77.0 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 14.3 14.9 15.5 1.3 78.8 73.4 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 13.5 14.4 16.3 1.0 70.2 66.0 12.3 13.3 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 13.2 13.5 13.2 1.0 71.9 67.8 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 13.6 14.6 16.6 1.1 69.7 65.6 12.2 13.3 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 13.4 14.2 15.8 1.7 83.2 77.4 11.2 12.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 11.7 12.2 12.7 1.2 76.2 71.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 47 53 100 14.4 14.9 17.4 1.3 73.8 69.5 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------