***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 12.8 12.6 15.4 0.9 66.0 58.8 10.9 11.8 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 10.2 12.3 15.0 0.7 62.8 58.1 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 15.0 14.9 15.6 1.0 69.3 61.3 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 10.9 10.8 12.7 0.9 67.7 60.5 8.3 9.5 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 11.5 11.3 12.7 0.8 65.7 60.1 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 10.5 10.3 10.9 0.8 66.5 61.0 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 12.9 12.7 15.3 0.9 66.2 59.9 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 6.9 6.3 10.7 0.6 63.2 59.3 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 12.8 12.6 13.1 0.9 67.2 61.1 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 12.4 12.0 11.5 0.7 63.8 59.5 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 11.8 11.4 12.1 0.7 64.1 59.5 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 10.3 9.9 11.3 0.6 64.0 59.6 8.4 9.2 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.8 10.4 10.6 0.4 58.8 56.8 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 12.9 12.6 13.1 0.7 64.8 60.3 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 13.0 13.1 14.0 1.1 71.4 62.9 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.4 12.3 11.5 0.7 63.8 59.3 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.1 12.7 14.7 0.6 61.5 57.8 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 11.0 10.6 10.7 0.6 63.3 59.3 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 12.8 12.4 15.1 0.7 63.8 58.8 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.8 6.5 8.6 0.4 58.8 57.0 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.1 14.5 0.9 66.9 60.3 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 12.2 11.7 14.6 0.6 61.0 58.0 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 12.2 12.0 15.1 0.9 67.6 61.4 10.1 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 12.3 12.2 12.8 0.8 67.2 61.5 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 12.6 12.3 13.9 0.8 63.8 58.0 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 9.1 10.7 10.6 0.4 59.5 56.8 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 13.3 12.9 14.6 0.8 64.7 58.3 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 11.0 11.0 13.0 1.0 69.8 62.0 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 10.6 10.0 10.1 0.5 61.6 58.4 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 13.1 12.9 15.3 0.8 65.4 59.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------