***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 11.9 11.8 14.4 1.0 66.6 62.5 9.8 10.8 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.6 14.0 0.7 62.5 59.4 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 14.2 14.1 14.6 1.0 68.1 63.6 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 9.8 9.8 11.9 1.1 70.2 65.7 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.1 11.1 12.0 1.0 68.5 64.3 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 10.2 10.2 10.2 1.1 71.0 66.3 8.2 9.1 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 12.1 11.9 14.2 0.8 64.3 60.7 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 6.3 6.3 10.1 1.1 70.8 67.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 12.1 12.0 12.2 1.0 69.1 64.5 10.0 10.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 11.8 11.7 10.8 1.0 69.0 65.1 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 11.3 11.2 11.4 1.0 68.9 65.1 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 10.4 10.5 10.7 1.1 71.2 67.1 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 11.0 10.8 10.0 0.9 67.0 63.3 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.2 12.2 0.9 67.3 63.1 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 12.2 12.4 13.1 1.3 73.3 67.8 10.6 11.3 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 12.1 12.1 10.8 1.0 69.1 64.9 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.8 13.7 0.6 61.0 58.2 10.2 11.2 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 10.9 10.8 9.9 1.0 69.1 65.1 8.6 9.7 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.8 14.1 0.8 63.9 60.5 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 7.1 7.0 8.1 1.0 68.9 65.4 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 11.7 11.7 13.6 1.0 67.9 63.4 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.8 13.6 0.7 62.0 58.8 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 11.7 11.6 14.1 1.0 67.7 63.2 9.5 10.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 11.7 11.6 11.9 1.0 69.3 64.8 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 12.3 12.2 13.1 1.0 66.8 63.0 10.2 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 11.1 11.0 10.0 1.0 69.3 64.6 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 12.7 12.5 13.7 1.0 66.2 62.2 10.0 11.3 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 10.6 10.7 12.2 1.2 71.8 67.1 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 10.0 9.9 9.4 1.0 68.8 65.1 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.1 14.3 0.8 64.4 61.0 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------