***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 27.4 27.9 28.2 1.9 73.6 70.0 24.2 25.7 27.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 27.6 28.4 28.6 2.4 78.0 73.9 24.2 25.8 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 27.6 28.4 28.8 2.4 79.1 74.3 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 20.8 21.9 26.5 2.9 83.4 78.1 17.6 19.0 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 28.1 28.8 27.0 2.2 76.5 72.1 25.1 26.5 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 27.1 27.9 24.7 2.3 79.0 73.5 24.3 25.6 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 27.3 27.8 28.3 2.2 76.2 72.3 24.0 25.5 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 16.6 17.4 25.1 2.5 78.9 74.3 13.6 14.9 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 27.7 28.7 28.1 2.7 80.9 75.8 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 27.6 28.4 26.1 2.5 78.7 73.9 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 28.0 28.7 27.4 2.4 77.9 73.6 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 27.6 28.5 26.4 2.7 81.2 76.5 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 28.3 28.9 26.7 2.1 75.7 71.8 25.3 26.7 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 27.7 28.8 27.7 2.7 82.3 77.2 24.2 25.7 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 28.4 29.9 29.1 3.1 87.2 81.0 25.5 26.7 27.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 29.1 30.0 27.1 2.6 80.0 75.2 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 26.9 27.7 28.1 2.4 77.7 73.8 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 26.5 27.6 25.4 2.7 81.0 75.5 23.5 24.9 26.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 27.5 28.5 28.9 2.6 80.7 76.2 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 22.8 23.8 23.3 2.6 80.5 75.2 19.7 21.1 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 27.5 28.2 28.4 2.1 75.8 71.4 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 27.3 28.0 27.9 2.2 76.2 72.5 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 27.6 29.3 29.6 3.4 87.4 82.0 24.2 25.6 26.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 27.3 28.6 27.8 2.9 83.3 77.8 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 27.4 27.9 27.0 1.8 71.8 68.4 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 28.3 29.2 26.2 2.8 82.7 77.6 25.1 26.4 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 27.1 27.5 27.4 1.7 72.1 68.7 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 28.4 29.6 27.6 2.9 84.8 79.0 25.5 26.7 27.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 22.0 23.0 24.5 2.6 79.8 74.4 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 27.4 28.0 28.5 2.2 76.3 72.4 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------