***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.2 26.7 1.5 69.5 65.1 22.8 24.4 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 25.1 26.1 26.6 1.4 67.5 63.5 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 26.2 26.4 27.2 1.9 72.3 67.4 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 19.2 20.2 25.4 2.6 80.4 73.6 15.6 17.2 18.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 26.8 27.3 25.8 2.2 75.3 69.7 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 25.6 26.3 23.7 2.4 77.7 71.5 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 24.7 25.8 26.5 1.4 67.9 63.5 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 15.0 15.6 24.0 2.5 77.2 70.8 11.8 13.2 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 26.4 27.0 26.5 2.4 76.8 70.9 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 25.9 26.4 24.9 2.4 76.3 70.3 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 26.5 27.1 26.0 2.4 76.5 70.7 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 25.7 26.5 25.4 2.6 78.7 72.1 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 26.6 26.9 25.2 2.1 73.5 68.5 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 26.0 26.2 25.6 1.9 71.8 67.2 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 26.8 27.9 27.2 2.7 82.2 75.2 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 27.4 27.9 25.7 2.5 77.2 71.2 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 24.3 25.1 26.0 1.2 65.3 61.6 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 25.0 25.5 24.1 2.4 75.9 69.8 21.8 23.2 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 25.9 26.0 26.9 1.6 69.7 65.4 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 21.3 21.8 21.9 2.3 75.5 69.3 17.9 19.4 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 26.3 26.5 26.8 1.9 71.9 67.2 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.3 25.9 1.0 63.2 60.5 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 26.1 26.6 27.4 2.2 75.3 69.7 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 25.8 26.3 26.0 2.3 75.5 69.8 22.5 24.0 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.3 25.4 1.6 69.6 65.3 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 26.3 27.1 25.0 2.7 79.2 72.9 23.2 24.6 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 26.1 26.1 25.8 1.5 68.6 64.3 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 26.7 27.7 26.2 2.7 81.5 74.8 23.6 25.0 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 20.5 21.0 23.1 2.2 74.3 68.6 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 25.9 26.0 26.7 1.5 68.4 64.2 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------