***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 22.4 25.9 25.9 1.4 66.9 59.8 22.7 24.3 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 25.0 25.7 25.8 1.3 65.5 59.4 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.2 26.5 1.6 69.6 61.3 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 19.7 20.4 24.8 2.3 76.7 66.8 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 27.0 27.2 24.9 1.8 71.6 63.2 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 26.0 26.3 22.7 1.9 72.4 64.4 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 22.3 25.5 25.8 1.3 66.4 59.9 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 15.4 15.7 23.4 2.0 72.9 64.2 12.2 13.6 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 26.5 26.8 25.3 1.9 71.9 63.0 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 26.3 26.5 24.1 1.9 72.1 63.4 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 26.7 27.0 24.9 2.0 73.0 64.3 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 26.1 26.5 24.7 2.1 74.0 65.0 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 23.3 27.2 23.8 1.8 70.7 63.0 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 26.3 26.1 24.5 1.5 67.8 60.8 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 26.9 27.8 25.5 2.3 78.4 68.1 23.7 25.2 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 27.7 28.2 24.7 2.1 74.2 65.2 24.1 25.7 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 21.7 24.6 25.4 1.1 63.7 58.3 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 25.5 25.6 23.6 1.9 71.9 63.2 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 25.8 25.6 26.1 1.4 66.9 60.2 22.7 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 21.6 21.6 21.1 1.8 70.6 62.9 18.3 19.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 26.5 26.5 25.7 1.6 68.7 60.9 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 22.3 25.2 25.2 1.0 62.3 57.7 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 26.1 26.0 26.3 1.7 70.0 62.0 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 26.1 26.2 24.9 1.9 71.7 62.8 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 22.6 26.1 24.4 1.5 67.8 60.5 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 26.8 27.5 24.3 2.2 75.7 66.3 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 22.5 25.8 25.0 1.3 66.4 59.6 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 27.1 27.9 25.2 2.4 77.8 67.8 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 20.9 20.8 22.5 1.7 70.2 62.5 17.6 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 22.4 25.6 25.9 1.3 66.5 59.9 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------