***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 24.4 23.9 24.3 1.2 64.3 60.1 21.3 22.7 24.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 25.0 24.5 24.3 1.2 64.0 59.4 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 25.1 24.8 24.8 1.4 65.8 60.8 21.8 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 18.4 18.5 23.1 2.0 72.8 66.4 14.8 16.4 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 25.8 25.7 23.3 1.6 68.6 63.5 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 25.0 24.9 21.1 1.7 69.4 63.6 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 24.6 24.1 24.2 1.2 64.7 60.1 21.3 22.8 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 14.7 14.6 21.7 1.7 69.2 63.8 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 25.5 25.4 23.6 1.7 68.7 63.1 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 25.1 25.0 22.4 1.7 68.6 63.2 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 25.6 25.5 23.1 1.7 69.5 64.3 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 25.0 25.0 22.9 1.9 70.5 64.8 21.3 23.0 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 26.1 25.9 22.2 1.7 68.5 63.5 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 25.4 25.0 23.0 1.4 65.7 60.4 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 25.5 25.6 23.7 1.9 73.4 66.9 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 26.6 26.6 23.0 1.9 71.0 65.2 23.0 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 24.1 23.6 23.9 1.1 63.6 59.0 21.0 22.4 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 24.3 24.3 22.0 1.7 68.8 62.9 20.8 22.5 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 24.8 24.4 24.5 1.3 64.9 59.9 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 20.6 20.5 19.4 1.6 67.6 62.5 17.2 18.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 25.2 24.9 24.1 1.4 65.8 61.1 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 25.1 24.4 23.8 1.1 62.9 58.4 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 25.0 24.8 24.7 1.5 67.2 61.3 21.6 23.2 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 25.0 25.0 23.3 1.7 68.4 62.4 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 24.8 24.5 22.9 1.3 65.9 61.5 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 26.0 26.2 22.7 2.1 73.6 66.6 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 24.8 24.3 23.5 1.2 65.0 60.8 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 25.8 26.0 23.3 2.0 73.2 66.8 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 20.0 19.9 20.9 1.6 67.3 61.9 16.4 18.1 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 24.7 24.3 24.3 1.2 64.1 59.7 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------