***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 25.4 25.9 26.3 1.5 76.6 70.2 23.3 24.3 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 25.6 26.1 26.3 1.6 77.1 70.6 23.5 24.5 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 25.6 26.3 26.8 1.8 81.0 73.6 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 19.0 20.3 24.9 2.4 88.0 80.2 16.5 17.6 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 26.2 27.1 25.3 2.0 82.5 75.2 24.1 25.1 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 25.4 26.4 23.0 2.0 85.6 77.1 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 25.2 25.7 26.2 1.5 76.9 70.6 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 14.7 15.6 23.6 2.2 85.3 77.2 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 25.8 26.8 25.9 2.1 84.5 76.9 23.7 24.7 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 25.6 26.6 24.4 2.1 84.3 76.5 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 26.0 26.9 25.4 2.1 84.3 76.7 23.9 24.8 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 25.4 26.6 24.8 2.3 86.6 78.5 23.2 24.2 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 26.3 27.1 24.5 1.9 81.7 74.5 24.3 25.2 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 25.6 26.4 25.2 1.9 82.2 74.5 23.5 24.5 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 26.4 27.8 26.4 2.5 89.8 81.8 24.2 25.1 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 27.0 28.0 25.1 2.3 85.6 77.9 24.8 25.7 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 24.7 25.1 25.9 1.4 75.6 69.4 22.7 23.7 24.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 24.6 25.6 23.7 2.2 85.3 77.2 22.7 23.6 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 25.3 26.0 26.6 1.7 79.4 72.6 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 20.8 21.8 21.4 2.0 84.9 76.4 18.9 19.8 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 25.8 26.4 26.2 1.7 79.4 72.7 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 25.3 25.6 25.7 1.3 73.6 67.9 23.3 24.3 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 25.5 26.5 27.0 2.2 85.4 77.6 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 25.3 26.3 25.5 2.2 85.4 77.4 23.3 24.2 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 25.6 26.1 24.9 1.5 76.6 70.5 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 26.2 27.4 24.5 2.4 88.3 80.2 24.1 25.0 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 25.4 25.8 25.4 1.4 75.8 69.7 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 26.5 27.8 25.6 2.5 89.2 81.2 24.3 25.2 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 20.1 20.9 22.8 2.0 83.9 75.9 18.2 19.1 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 25.4 25.9 26.4 1.5 77.1 70.6 23.3 24.3 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------