***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 3.8 6.3 5.5 45.1 42.0 29.9 4.3 8.5 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 4.0 6.4 5.1 42.7 41.1 30.2 4.7 8.8 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 4.0 6.8 5.2 45.6 42.1 30.6 4.6 9.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 3.3 5.3 4.7 39.9 38.6 27.5 4.0 8.6 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 3.2 5.7 4.5 40.8 39.3 25.7 4.3 8.8 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 3.1 3.9 4.4 32.4 33.1 25.3 3.9 7.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 2.7 4.7 5.0 41.8 41.0 30.2 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 5.8 7.7 5.3 38.6 33.0 25.3 7.7 14.4 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 4.2 6.7 4.9 41.8 39.1 28.0 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 4.7 6.8 5.7 40.9 36.6 27.1 5.8 11.3 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 3.3 5.4 4.2 37.4 36.2 24.7 4.7 9.0 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 2.8 4.0 4.2 37.0 33.5 23.9 3.9 7.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 3.1 4.7 4.1 34.9 36.6 24.2 4.0 7.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 5.4 8.9 6.8 49.1 41.1 28.6 6.7 11.9 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 1.6 2.9 4.0 40.8 42.8 29.6 1.8 3.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 3.0 4.6 4.3 37.5 38.0 26.6 3.6 7.6 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 3.9 6.3 5.5 46.3 42.9 31.9 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 4.2 6.2 7.2 47.1 38.2 29.4 5.1 9.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 4.3 6.6 5.3 44.1 41.9 30.9 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 4.9 6.7 7.0 43.3 33.7 27.2 6.5 11.6 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 3.0 5.4 5.1 44.8 41.0 29.0 3.7 7.6 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 6.1 9.7 6.0 48.5 44.2 31.9 7.3 11.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 4.4 7.3 5.6 47.5 43.3 32.3 4.9 9.1 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 5.5 9.1 6.3 48.7 41.5 30.3 6.5 12.2 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 2.6 5.3 5.5 44.9 41.8 27.5 3.4 7.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 2.2 2.8 2.9 27.0 29.7 20.1 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 3.6 5.7 5.4 43.1 41.1 28.9 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 2.5 4.0 4.3 38.2 39.1 28.5 3.1 5.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 6.0 8.7 7.1 45.6 36.7 28.5 7.4 14.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.8 5.8 5.0 42.6 41.2 30.2 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------