***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.6 10.1 79.5 58.5 45.3 2.6 6.1 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.0 9.4 82.5 58.7 45.0 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.4 8.7 10.3 81.4 57.8 45.3 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 6.0 17.8 11.3 91.4 63.2 46.2 6.1 11.6 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.8 12.3 11.4 95.5 63.5 47.2 4.6 8.3 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.3 13.0 13.2 92.5 61.6 43.5 4.3 8.6 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.9 9.2 83.1 58.5 45.2 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.8 28.7 14.5 109.9 67.6 52.5 7.7 15.6 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.3 12.8 12.1 100.6 65.4 49.7 4.1 7.9 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.6 14.7 14.6 108.1 67.2 52.2 4.1 8.1 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.7 12.6 12.9 101.0 64.2 48.0 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.3 16.4 12.5 106.8 66.5 49.6 4.9 9.5 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.2 12.3 12.0 93.4 62.2 44.7 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.3 13.7 91.6 61.1 49.6 4.3 8.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.3 8.3 10.1 86.3 61.8 41.0 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.2 13.1 12.1 99.5 64.5 46.7 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.4 9.5 89.2 61.3 48.5 3.3 7.4 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.7 15.2 102.5 65.3 52.0 4.5 8.9 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.9 9.6 82.2 58.6 44.9 3.6 7.8 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.2 20.5 16.3 103.1 64.8 51.8 6.8 12.8 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.3 10.0 11.3 91.2 62.1 47.2 3.6 6.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.0 13.1 10.6 93.9 62.6 48.1 4.6 8.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.4 8.6 9.9 80.7 57.7 45.3 2.7 6.2 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.9 12.9 91.1 61.4 49.5 3.9 8.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.2 11.4 81.0 58.6 44.7 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.0 9.2 11.4 91.3 61.1 44.4 3.3 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.1 10.9 79.0 57.9 45.2 3.0 6.7 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 3.5 11.0 10.7 92.2 63.6 44.1 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.2 24.1 15.9 100.5 64.1 51.4 8.4 15.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.2 9.4 79.7 57.4 44.3 3.1 6.8 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------