***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 4.2 15.1 9.0 92.5 62.6 40.8 4.8 9.7 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 4.1 15.3 10.1 104.2 66.5 43.1 4.5 8.7 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.4 13.7 9.1 99.5 64.6 42.7 3.5 7.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.9 13.2 8.6 94.8 63.6 41.9 3.9 8.1 14.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.8 11.5 7.6 89.7 61.5 41.9 3.6 7.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.8 7.3 8.8 80.0 58.5 41.2 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 3.3 13.4 9.4 96.3 64.2 41.2 3.9 8.0 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.5 16.1 8.1 80.7 57.6 40.4 7.0 12.7 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.5 10.7 7.7 86.7 60.6 41.9 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.9 12.0 8.7 83.7 58.9 41.4 5.2 9.3 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 3.2 9.8 6.8 83.9 59.6 40.8 3.5 7.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.3 9.3 6.4 78.3 57.1 39.5 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.3 9.0 7.5 82.0 59.2 40.4 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 4.1 17.8 12.2 97.6 63.7 42.0 4.7 10.5 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.4 8.3 7.6 91.7 63.4 39.6 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.1 9.7 7.4 87.7 61.2 41.2 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.0 13.4 9.6 93.0 63.1 40.4 4.1 8.4 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 6.4 15.6 9.9 83.5 58.4 42.2 6.5 12.0 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.1 15.5 10.5 110.4 68.1 44.9 4.3 8.6 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.0 17.7 11.0 85.1 59.1 42.5 8.2 13.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 4.0 14.8 8.2 96.8 63.8 41.9 4.8 9.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.6 13.5 10.6 95.2 63.6 43.0 3.5 7.8 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.7 15.3 11.1 118.7 70.3 46.2 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.3 14.9 9.9 90.9 61.3 41.8 4.4 9.7 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 4.2 15.7 9.5 96.0 64.1 41.8 4.6 9.5 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.6 6.1 72.1 55.6 38.0 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 3.6 15.8 9.9 94.0 63.3 40.9 3.8 9.1 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.8 9.0 8.2 94.0 63.5 41.0 2.8 5.7 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.9 19.1 10.3 82.7 57.7 42.0 8.0 15.0 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 4.0 14.8 10.2 105.2 66.7 43.2 4.3 8.6 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------