***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 25.2 36.4 35.4 76.5 45.3 40.8 25.6 40.8 60.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 49.4 40.5 34.9 79.2 47.5 41.8 30.4 42.6 56.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 29.8 42.2 35.7 80.6 47.6 42.5 30.0 44.4 62.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 27.9 41.1 34.3 77.5 47.6 41.9 26.7 43.6 65.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 47.1 37.1 33.4 79.4 48.6 43.3 24.8 38.4 55.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 19.8 27.8 36.8 72.1 41.3 37.2 21.8 34.8 51.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 47.9 37.3 33.7 76.8 45.6 40.2 28.1 40.6 55.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 44.7 61.4 39.4 80.1 45.4 41.8 46.0 67.9 94.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 51.0 42.4 34.9 80.1 48.2 43.6 31.4 43.8 58.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 34.0 45.6 40.8 80.8 46.4 42.6 34.4 48.8 65.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 26.7 36.9 33.4 78.6 46.9 42.1 27.1 39.4 53.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 24.5 36.1 32.9 79.2 46.4 42.0 26.0 39.3 55.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 21.0 30.9 33.6 75.0 44.9 40.5 21.5 35.4 53.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 41.6 57.7 46.1 85.0 48.3 43.2 42.5 59.7 79.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 16.5 24.9 29.4 73.9 48.1 41.6 16.0 26.3 39.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 20.6 32.7 33.1 77.9 47.6 42.3 21.3 34.5 51.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 48.6 39.5 34.7 79.9 47.4 41.3 29.2 41.5 55.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 36.2 47.3 45.7 81.9 45.7 42.3 36.4 51.3 68.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 52.2 43.8 36.0 81.4 48.7 42.8 31.6 44.8 60.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 41.7 55.2 49.0 81.8 44.6 41.6 43.3 61.0 81.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 28.9 42.2 35.2 81.3 49.4 44.1 28.5 42.7 59.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 32.6 44.3 37.6 82.2 48.2 42.1 32.5 45.7 61.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 51.8 45.2 37.5 85.0 50.5 43.8 32.6 44.7 58.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 41.7 55.9 41.5 82.9 47.5 42.9 42.5 58.4 76.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 26.7 38.4 37.3 77.5 46.8 41.6 26.2 41.4 60.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 18.7 26.4 29.7 69.8 41.3 37.3 20.8 32.8 47.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 25.4 36.8 37.4 76.4 45.2 40.4 26.1 41.7 60.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 19.4 28.3 32.1 76.4 47.9 41.8 19.0 29.9 42.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 56.4 71.9 47.0 81.3 44.3 41.7 57.2 79.9 106.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 47.6 36.7 35.3 79.3 47.2 42.1 25.9 39.3 55.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------