***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 13.9 14.0 16.8 1.0 68.2 66.7 12.2 13.1 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.2 16.5 1.2 73.2 70.9 11.9 12.9 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 16.1 16.2 17.0 1.0 68.7 67.1 14.1 15.1 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 11.8 12.5 15.2 1.8 81.2 78.7 9.3 10.4 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 13.0 13.3 15.6 1.2 73.1 71.2 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 12.1 12.3 12.8 1.1 73.9 72.3 10.2 11.0 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 14.0 14.2 16.6 1.1 69.9 67.9 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 7.6 7.9 13.1 1.2 75.2 73.2 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.1 15.6 1.1 71.8 69.9 12.1 13.0 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 14.0 14.2 14.0 1.2 74.1 72.0 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 13.8 14.0 15.4 1.2 74.2 72.4 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 12.2 12.4 14.2 1.3 74.7 72.8 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 13.0 13.0 13.8 0.7 65.9 64.7 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 14.4 14.4 14.9 0.8 67.2 65.7 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 15.3 15.6 17.1 1.4 78.3 76.3 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 14.7 14.8 14.7 1.1 72.9 71.3 12.6 13.5 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 14.6 15.0 16.5 1.6 80.3 77.3 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 12.6 12.8 13.3 1.2 72.8 71.0 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.3 16.7 1.3 74.3 72.0 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 8.9 9.2 11.7 1.3 76.5 74.4 6.9 7.8 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 13.6 13.6 16.6 1.0 68.4 66.8 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 13.7 14.0 16.8 1.5 78.2 75.2 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 13.8 14.2 17.1 1.6 78.3 75.6 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.0 15.2 1.0 69.3 67.7 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 14.1 14.2 16.2 1.1 68.9 67.3 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 12.3 12.6 12.7 0.5 60.6 59.9 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 14.3 14.5 16.5 1.1 70.0 68.2 12.0 13.1 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 13.1 13.5 15.6 1.5 77.6 75.5 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 11.6 11.8 12.7 1.2 73.9 72.1 9.4 10.3 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 14.2 14.4 16.7 1.1 69.5 67.6 12.3 13.3 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------