***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 12.6 12.6 15.9 1.2 71.2 66.4 10.7 11.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 12.8 13.0 15.6 1.2 72.9 67.8 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 14.9 15.2 16.2 1.3 73.5 68.1 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 10.5 11.4 13.8 1.7 81.5 74.2 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 11.6 12.3 14.3 1.6 79.9 73.1 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.7 11.5 11.8 1.5 80.4 73.1 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 12.8 12.8 15.7 1.0 69.9 65.8 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 6.4 7.1 12.1 1.6 79.6 73.3 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 12.6 13.1 14.3 1.5 78.3 71.8 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 12.3 12.8 12.8 1.5 78.2 71.9 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 12.1 12.7 14.0 1.6 81.0 74.2 10.2 11.0 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 10.5 11.1 13.0 1.6 80.1 73.8 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 11.4 11.8 12.5 1.4 77.3 71.2 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.4 14.0 1.2 73.2 67.7 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 13.4 14.1 15.4 1.6 81.9 75.1 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 12.9 13.5 13.3 1.5 80.1 73.6 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 13.1 13.4 15.4 1.3 75.1 69.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 11.4 11.8 12.1 1.3 75.6 69.9 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 12.8 13.1 15.9 1.4 76.0 69.9 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 7.6 8.1 10.3 1.4 77.3 72.0 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.5 15.5 1.3 74.3 68.7 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 12.2 12.6 15.8 1.4 77.3 70.6 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 12.4 12.9 16.1 1.6 79.7 72.6 10.2 11.2 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 12.5 12.9 14.1 1.3 74.7 69.0 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 12.6 12.9 15.0 1.4 74.1 68.9 10.5 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 11.5 12.0 11.9 1.3 76.3 70.0 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 13.4 13.6 15.4 1.2 71.6 66.9 10.4 11.8 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 11.1 11.9 14.2 1.6 82.0 74.4 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 10.4 10.8 11.5 1.3 76.0 70.7 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.2 15.8 1.1 70.7 66.3 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------