***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9.4 10.6 13.6 0.0 49.2 49.1 9.6 10.7 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.0 13.3 0.1 50.9 50.4 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 11.9 13.1 13.8 0.0 49.9 50.0 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.3 8.8 11.1 0.2 53.9 52.8 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 8.5 10.0 11.3 0.2 53.1 52.0 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.3 9.5 0.3 55.6 54.6 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.1 13.5 0.0 50.3 50.0 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.3 9.5 0.2 55.0 54.2 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 9.5 10.9 11.5 0.1 52.0 51.4 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.5 10.8 10.2 0.2 53.2 52.8 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.4 10.8 0.3 55.2 53.6 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.9 9.5 10.1 0.3 55.4 54.1 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 8.4 9.9 9.4 0.2 53.1 52.6 8.6 9.7 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.2 11.4 -0.1 48.9 50.1 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.4 12.3 0.3 56.0 53.7 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 9.9 11.3 10.2 0.3 55.5 54.0 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.3 13.2 0.2 53.6 52.4 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.6 9.5 0.1 51.8 52.2 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.1 13.4 0.0 50.8 50.6 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.3 6.0 7.5 0.1 51.8 52.5 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 9.1 10.5 12.9 0.0 50.1 50.0 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.2 13.1 0.1 52.0 51.5 9.2 10.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.6 13.3 0.1 50.9 51.2 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.5 10.6 11.3 0.0 50.8 51.4 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 9.9 11.1 12.2 0.0 49.7 49.8 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.9 9.2 0.1 51.6 51.9 8.9 9.9 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 9.6 11.2 12.9 0.0 49.3 49.3 9.8 11.2 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.2 9.7 11.4 0.3 55.6 53.8 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.6 8.8 9.0 0.1 51.0 52.1 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 9.8 11.2 13.5 0.0 49.5 49.4 10.0 11.2 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------