***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 11.9 12.3 15.2 0.6 65.3 61.5 11.2 11.8 12.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 12.3 12.5 14.9 0.7 71.0 66.6 11.0 11.7 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 14.5 14.5 15.4 0.6 67.7 63.7 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 10.2 10.6 13.1 1.0 78.2 72.0 8.6 9.3 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 11.2 11.4 13.4 0.8 73.6 68.0 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 10.3 10.5 11.2 0.8 76.3 69.8 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 12.5 12.5 15.0 0.6 67.0 63.4 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 6.1 6.4 11.3 0.9 76.6 70.4 4.9 5.5 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 12.3 12.4 13.4 0.7 71.7 66.4 11.2 11.7 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 12.1 12.3 12.0 0.8 74.0 68.2 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 11.7 11.9 13.0 0.9 75.9 69.9 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 10.3 10.6 12.1 0.9 76.4 70.2 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 11.1 11.2 11.5 0.6 70.2 64.7 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 12.7 12.7 13.2 0.5 67.0 63.2 11.6 12.2 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 13.0 13.2 14.6 1.0 78.2 72.0 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 12.5 12.7 12.4 0.8 75.0 69.0 11.5 11.9 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 12.8 13.0 14.8 0.9 76.3 71.2 11.6 12.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 11.0 11.1 11.4 0.7 72.0 66.8 9.6 10.3 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 12.4 12.6 15.1 0.8 73.0 68.2 11.3 11.9 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.3 9.5 0.8 74.7 69.6 6.0 6.5 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.5 11.9 14.7 0.6 67.2 63.0 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 11.8 12.1 15.0 0.9 75.6 70.5 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 12.0 12.3 15.2 0.9 75.9 70.7 10.7 11.3 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 12.1 12.2 13.2 0.6 69.7 65.1 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.4 14.1 0.7 67.8 63.8 11.3 11.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.2 11.0 0.6 68.5 63.0 10.2 10.7 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 12.2 12.7 14.6 0.6 66.8 62.9 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 11.0 11.2 13.4 1.0 77.7 71.3 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 10.0 10.2 10.8 0.7 72.3 67.5 8.7 9.4 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 12.7 12.7 15.1 0.6 66.8 63.1 11.5 12.1 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------