***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 27.6 27.9 27.6 2.1 75.9 74.1 23.9 25.4 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 27.4 28.0 28.0 2.2 76.9 74.7 23.9 25.4 26.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 27.2 27.6 27.8 2.2 74.6 72.9 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 20.7 21.3 25.4 2.6 79.7 77.7 17.3 18.7 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 28.2 28.6 26.5 2.5 77.2 75.3 24.9 26.2 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 27.1 27.4 23.8 2.2 76.8 75.1 23.9 25.2 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 27.1 27.6 27.7 2.1 75.9 73.7 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 16.4 16.7 24.1 2.3 75.5 74.0 13.2 14.6 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 27.6 28.1 27.3 2.7 78.6 76.7 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 27.3 27.6 25.0 2.3 74.8 73.2 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 28.0 28.5 26.8 2.6 78.2 76.3 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 27.4 27.8 25.5 2.5 78.1 76.4 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 28.4 29.0 26.3 2.7 79.9 78.1 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 27.2 27.6 26.4 2.3 74.9 73.1 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 28.2 29.0 28.3 2.8 82.3 80.3 25.1 26.4 27.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 29.1 29.7 26.5 2.8 80.6 78.7 25.5 26.9 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 26.9 27.7 27.8 2.7 81.0 78.5 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 26.2 26.4 23.9 2.2 73.2 71.8 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 27.3 28.0 28.3 2.5 79.1 76.8 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 22.6 22.9 22.1 2.3 75.0 73.6 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 27.6 27.9 27.8 2.3 75.1 73.4 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 27.4 28.2 28.0 2.7 81.1 78.8 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 27.4 28.5 28.6 3.1 83.2 80.7 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 26.9 27.3 26.3 2.3 74.7 73.1 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 27.6 28.1 26.6 2.3 76.4 74.5 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 27.9 28.0 24.6 1.9 73.6 72.3 24.8 26.1 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 27.4 27.9 27.1 2.3 77.8 75.8 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 28.3 28.9 26.7 2.7 81.1 79.1 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 21.7 22.0 23.3 2.2 73.4 72.0 18.6 20.0 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 27.0 27.5 27.8 2.0 74.0 72.1 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------